Token Launches · resolved market
Kinetiq FDV above $2B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8fc994499eb98d128337e4b3e3043facc8874d1e58e3043fb9d21e7d3bcd7416
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $274,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $202,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 0c | 9,203$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…1055backed Yes | 2c | 8,067$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.41 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Yes | 10c | 7,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf017…1823backed Yes | 9c | 5,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xacfc…f09dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,040$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…b9c0backed Yes | 9c | 2,551$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked Yes | 8c | 1,800$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 2c | 1,038$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,024$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.69 | 42 | 7.1%3 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f0…4da0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…4bcfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477d…e691backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…22cfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…c9b2backed Yes | 9c | 849.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 741.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 9c | 581.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5a…3362backed Yes | 3c | 560$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb251…6f5bbacked Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.9wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 493.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…cda8backed Yes | 10c | 480$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Yes | 11c | 400$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c77…5aafbacked Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +263.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Yes | 14c | 287.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 13c | 235.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2439…d220backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 16c | 160$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 140$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x539a…0d4abacked Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e23…ba24backed Yes | 16c | 128.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e1…26b3backed Yes | 10c | 102$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0b…5df6backed Yes | 20c | 98.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Yes | 34c | 74.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…2676backed Yes | 19c | 52.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…9985backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…4fd7backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kinetiq FDV above $2B one day after launch?this page
- Kinetiq FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.