Token Launches · resolved market
Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5b8106bf2429e116bb5baa183224692be9bb59b8947bb4fa7c9151ed49fa98d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $242,332
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $242,332 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 0c | 9,800$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf626…f9f0backed Yes | 1c | 8,547$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…3a26backed Yes | 0c | 8,270$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb518…ec0bbacked Yes | 1c | 7,006$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08e5…e255backed No | 44c | 6,348$2,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,550.56 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 68c | 6,274$4,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,994.71 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,214$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…aad4backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked Yes | 7c | 4,576$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.25 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe391…f0b1backed Yes | 1c | 4,486$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…c32cbacked Yes | 13c | 4,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca5a…245bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,741$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a26…8acbbacked Yes | 22c | 3,724$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.5 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x515a…1055backed Yes | 10c | 3,624$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…8a8fbacked No | 63c | 3,602$2,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.9 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9bec…f7b7backed Yes | 2c | 3,560$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 15cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,291$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f15…303fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,088$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 2,601$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2275…188bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,596$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefa…de9ebacked Yes | 30c | 2,476$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4f…fda5backed Yes | 9c | 2,457$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.31 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…a88fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,309$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc816…4bcfbacked Yes | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Yes | 57c | 1,881$1,074 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…c5c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e40…1319backed Yes | 1c | 1,571$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…0efebacked Yes | 60c | 1,500$895 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$895 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Yes | 22c | 1,486$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.78 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacfc…f09dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,282$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b52…654bbacked Yes | 15c | 1,149$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3baa…1fd8backed No | 44c | 1,146$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.87 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…d292backed Yes | 28c | 1,060$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…a292backed No | 50c | 1,005$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…22cfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,001$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…d819backed Yes | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x261a…fad0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Yes | 50c | 999.01$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.51 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 735.16$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.43 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd8…1de3backed No | 70c | 716.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…381bbacked Yes | 29c | 689.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48de…d367backed No | 45c | 650.35$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.13 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +243.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a4…adcdbacked Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +91%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae42…cd65backed No | 77c | 499.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd627…f511backed Yes | 45c | 499.99$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73c0…3733backed Yes | 55c | 456.93$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5382…7a8dbacked Yes | 11c | 454.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f16…7a73backed No | 55c | 449.22$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.5wins | +0.43per pick | 44cpaid | +181.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d55…1503backed Yes | 17c | 400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…30e4backed Yes | 34c | 400$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…3775backed No | 51c | 389.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.12 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x546b…0405backed No | 76c | 287.53$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +7.4wins | +0.41per pick | 42cpaid | +144.9%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 270.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 264.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 11c | 255.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…5261backed Yes | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…be41backed Yes | 39c | 235.4$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 222.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed2…8e93backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4db7…d20ebacked No | 80c | 195.64$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.13 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 45c | 190$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.82 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…c8adbacked Yes | 40c | 184.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…eac0backed Yes | 14c | 182.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…1b25backed Yes | 19c | 181.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390a…9d70backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 24c | 166.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…d596backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf7…2b0dbacked Yes | 34c | 161.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 17c | 149.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.43 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed Yes | 40c | 147.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.61 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x540e…ffedbacked Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…cabdbacked Yes | 33c | 145.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1712…69b5backed Yes | 60c | 135.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.34per pick | 57cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 27c | 134.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 21c | 130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5a…3362backed Yes | 16c | 122.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5735…239dbacked Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 54c | 108$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…e971backed Yes | 53c | 106.38$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…641fbacked No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed No | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89d0…03c1backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a60…f4debacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed No | 75c | 91.96$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.91 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 48cpaid | +113.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9bca…5337backed Yes | 59c | 84.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked Yes | 56c | 83.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a24…26b5backed Yes | 33c | 81.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb0…3070backed No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dab…fb09backed Yes | 14c | 77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…c977backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…afddbacked No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…0105backed Yes | 36c | 55.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a7…2676backed No | 38c | 53.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc061…a297backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 66c | 46.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 52c | 45.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…dbe9backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?this page
- Kinetiq FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.