Token Launches · resolved market
Kinetiq FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54a781bcc72a72cf8d8303585b7dbc28012da249ac9bf46090a4c87255a8c0cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $418,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $344,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $418,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe3b6…86abbacked No | 1c | 90,000$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 2c | 35,911$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.41 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc628…54f0backed No | 2c | 35,510$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.52 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9564…3a32backed No | 1c | 15,665$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b4b9backed No | 3c | 14,335$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.58 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…4ab2backed No | 1c | 10,624$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ae…137fbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…ec33backed No | 4c | 8,161$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 5,312$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.54 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad4…3d8cbacked No | 5c | 4,652$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.62 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3240…5d25backed No | 3c | 4,294$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e50…487bbacked No | 3c | 4,016$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.47 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd626…89cebacked No | 3c | 3,801$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d26…a7d1backed No | 10c | 3,696$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.24 | 96 | 45.8%44 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1161…729abacked Yes | 77c | 3,689$2,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.47 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…0b02backed No | 30c | 3,477$1,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,050.54 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab51…2473backed No | 4c | 2,649$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.26 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | +12.7wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8904…80a3backed No | 22c | 2,244$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc452…7234backed No | 24c | 2,114$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…94fbbacked No | 7c | 2,003$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf68…474ebacked No | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1895…759fbacked No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -82%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked No | 16c | 1,990$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaab…e6f2backed No | 15c | 1,945$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…9238backed Yes | 78c | 1,768$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…1e82backed No | 13c | 1,752$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0213…f7e3backed No | 12c | 1,731$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 11c | 1,724$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.9 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed No | 12c | 1,600$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed No | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked No | 13c | 1,400$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…f0fdbacked No | 1c | 1,397$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…158bbacked No | 9c | 1,302$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.22 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 7c | 1,300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65ff…488ebacked No | 7c | 1,250$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…e32ebacked No | 8c | 1,234$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49a6…7049backed No | 2c | 1,225$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 4c | 1,088$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7a…3de0backed No | 7c | 1,012$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c0…911dbacked Yes | 77c | 1,000$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…d300backed No | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa41f…b397backed Yes | 71c | 839.12$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe286…7735backed No | 34c | 803.78$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 4c | 800$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 77 | 3.9%3 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c31…5240backed Yes | 77c | 800$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…0dd0backed No | 14c | 790.43$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.41per pick | 16cpaid | +201.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…3cabbacked No | 7c | 731.92$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +198.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081c…4434backed No | 15c | 724.1$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -67%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed Yes | 77c | 699.99$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed No | 6c | 699.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df8…3ee8backed No | 12c | 565.48$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0c…6b78backed No | 8c | 559.66$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf014…d442backed No | 22c | 531.49$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked No | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked No | 14c | 489$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.46 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…a0b9backed Yes | 69c | 486.96$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.96 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf11d…9c59backed No | 24c | 461.33$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 458$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.96 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 39c | 435.13$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.37 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2f61…bb12backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -72%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78e5…7d6abacked Yes | 59c | 399.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 18c | 398$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.65 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 5c | 362.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b2…ee3ebacked No | 14c | 358.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +298.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2557…dd37backed Yes | 78c | 346.19$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…70fcbacked No | 15c | 339.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…9891backed No | 5c | 320$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…6d39backed No | 33c | 304.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -61%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf0…de6dbacked No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d2…2ef7backed No | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4db7…d20ebacked Yes | 74c | 299.99$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +6.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfeba…68fdbacked No | 17c | 294.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 15c | 290.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.2 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…3710backed No | 14c | 287.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…3aa8backed No | 11c | 261.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef5…5380backed No | 12c | 258.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282d…8a32backed No | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee8…f785backed No | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f4d…181fbacked No | 41c | 245.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked No | 11c | 229.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 24c | 228.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 14c | 222$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e57…6c04backed No | 7c | 208$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7534…d51bbacked No | 7c | 208$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed No | 30c | 207.2$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 21c | 206.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…9ed6backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa381…e40abacked Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…0741backed No | 6c | 199.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1170…8398backed No | 24c | 166.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f3…4717backed No | 8c | 161.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dba…9c3dbacked Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 146.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…5208backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…1b1fbacked No | 22c | 111.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…7a04backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…82a5backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kinetiq FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- Kinetiq FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- Kinetiq FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $250M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Kinetiq FDV above $50M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.