TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7243…942a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
310
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category AI at 53 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT13850%69 W · 69 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 138 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$107Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+86.9%+$93
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$41
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Team Yandex Win The International 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.94
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$52.5
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$81
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Will BoomBoys Win The International 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.35
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$229Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+31%+$71
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$52.49
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$40
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winnerbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$59
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$37
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$45
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$84
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.99
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winnerbacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+181.7%+$129
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$84
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 2 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Team Falcons Win The International 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$45
Will 1w Team Win The International 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.55
Showing 25 of 138 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT7742.9%33 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 77 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the announcers say "Hattrick" or "Hat Trick" during the Argentina vs Spain FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Will Spain be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$98.1
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$874Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$874.27
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.25
England vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+91.4%+$23.88
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$25.39
Norway vs. England: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Morocco be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$904Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$285.46
Will Switzerland be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.36
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$356Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$355.68
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$334Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+104.5%+$349.49
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$700
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$350
Portugal vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked Portugal · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$660Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$660
Will Brazil be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will Ghana be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$17.43
Colombia vs. Ghana: Team to Advancebacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+25%+$98.08
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.25
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$103.8
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$440
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.45
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$72
Showing 25 of 77 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT3732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$305Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$305.45
Space FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.83
Space FDV above $15M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$505Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+130.4%+$658.32
Space FDV above $80M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$110.88
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$136
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$103.82
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$11.15
ETHGAS FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$21.38
ETHGAS FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$288.04
Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$38.14
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$82.82
Over $22M committed to the Space public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Over $20M committed to the Space public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+127.3%+$28
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$2,520Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$2,519.6
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$1,126.25
Will Rabby launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+78.6%+$157.14
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$485Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+95.3%+$462.15
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$904Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+97.4%+$880.03
No airdrop in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$175
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$31.2
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST+110.5%+$105
Lighter Airdrop on December 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$102
Lighter Airdrop on December 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$15.09
Lighter Airdrop on December 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10.08
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST2240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15.6
Hyperliquid all time high by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+72.4%+$25.34
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$51.43
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+100%+$100
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+177.8%+$137.65
Will Bitcoin dip to $102,000 October 13-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$63.05
Will Bitcoin dip to $104,000 October 13-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.16
Will Bitcoin dip to $106,000 October 13-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+225.9%+$263.4
Will Bitcoin dip to $108,000 October 13-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.7
Will Bitcoin dip to $118,000 October 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+212.5%+$115.6
Will Bitcoin dip to $120,000 October 6-12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$43
Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 September 29-October 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.12
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 September 29-October 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+545.2%+$84.5
Will Bitcoin reach $122,000 September 29-October 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.8
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 September 29-October 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT+525%+$131.25
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 September 29-October 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 2, 2025, EDT+194.1%+$135.88
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 September 29-October 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Ethereum reach $4,300 September 29-October 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.85
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 September 22-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$94.29
Will Ethereum reach $4800 in August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$110
All 22 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$113
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.05
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+56.3%+$32.76
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$300
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+224.5%+$778.09
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+26.6%+$132.91
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$553Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$553.44
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$346Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+113%+$391
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-50.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-72.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+400%+$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+180.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gold close between $4300 and $4400 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+180.1%+$64.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wimbledon WTA: Serena Williams vs Maya Jointbacked Maya Joint · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$46
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NIP - Map 2 Winnerbacked NIP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$66.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,950Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$1,050
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$76.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 19, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rams vs. Bearsbacked Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$33.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.