Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $118,000 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec52ec476de0cc37cefc7b9bc20e7c4dc46feec6dd5662054aa2cfaba13d0b17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $203,076
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $210,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $203,076 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 43c | 16,441$7,023 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,417.77 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 33c | 15,300$5,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,112 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 40c | 12,500$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,500 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 35c | 11,595$4,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,493.97 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 39c | 10,500$4,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,359 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 34c | 6,174$2,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,065.9 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 51c | 5,997$3,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,952.63 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 38c | 4,327$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,665.83 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 35c | 3,859$1,339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,519.95 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…a28dbacked Yes | 33c | 3,700$1,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,479 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +197.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2133…7bc2backed Yes | 37c | 3,240$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,041.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 30c | 3,000$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 20c | 2,822$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,266.95 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…a429backed No | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 31c | 2,190$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.2 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 50c | 2,084$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.66 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2d…6ae3backed Yes | 21c | 1,500$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,184.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 48c | 1,049$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.66 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 37c | 987.94$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$622.4 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…da0abacked Yes | 32c | 625$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f16…da10backed Yes | 73c | 594.09$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 28c | 429.3$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.45 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 59c | 410$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.2 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6af6…296ebacked No | 76c | 328.95$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8507…d3b3backed Yes | 19c | 291.93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +258.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…7547backed Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 52c | 231.82$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…91b5backed No | 65c | 230$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 19c | 210$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…39cbbacked No | 77c | 208.92$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2d…d66fbacked No | 76c | 205.58$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked No | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1de0…a0dabacked No | 77c | 194.05$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f7…faccbacked No | 77c | 193.69$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5915…feb0backed No | 74c | 192.28$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1a…0d7ebacked No | 76c | 185.79$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b50…77a2backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa75…c983backed No | 77c | 171.62$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17de…fb7abacked No | 77c | 171.32$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked Yes | 32c | 170$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes | 48c | 169.92$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.36 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe734…5b4dbacked No | 77c | 160.36$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 62c | 160$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.35 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf347…c3b5backed No | 76c | 156.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 76c | 156.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.86 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +63%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa43c…e0a1backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc440…1f01backed No | 75c | 131.71$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfc…62a2backed No | 77c | 130.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…5b16backed No | 77c | 123.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f62…2ab2backed No | 76c | 121$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed No | 61c | 113$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…96a5backed No | 45c | 110.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd44…c3f9backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe58f…a52bbacked Yes | 36c | 102.72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.74 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…61dabacked Yes | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Yes | 43c | 87.54$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 21c | 86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…711cbacked Yes | 67c | 83.51$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4a…c394backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda7c…9c1abacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0af…b000backed Yes | 75c | 65.93$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 54c | 65.88$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa248…04f3backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0d…2025backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…f1b9backed Yes | 47c | 56.15$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bb…571ebacked No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6aa…bc11backed No | 75c | 53.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…3c93backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb7…65fdbacked No | 69c | 47.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d1…29bfbacked Yes | 23c | 47.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +228.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…c36cbacked No | 77c | 44.16$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 72cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4beb…4896backed No | 59c | 43.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa935…26e1backed No | 68c | 42.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…db84backed Yes | 69c | 41.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Yes | 24c | 41.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1176…f6d0backed No | 33c | 38.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x794c…c92bbacked No | 61c | 36.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc8…d12ebacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x935d…82dcbacked Yes | 47c | 28.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd4…b297backed No | 68c | 27.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…15f6backed No | 63c | 25.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…873abacked No | 79c | 24.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5076…8f0cbacked No | 65c | 18.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $118,000 October 6-12?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $116,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $120,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $122,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $132,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $134,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $136,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $138,000 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.