Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1449296b6e164e7515cef5b0f1c47ce5c27676df1bc6b536a07a1fda5cfb6322
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 53c | 11,901$6,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,621.26 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa580…184cbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 38c | 7,362$2,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,537.29 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 0c | 5,680$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ba…c0eebacked No | 47c | 5,680$2,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,669.6 | 26 | 80.8%21 W · 5 L | +4.5wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…da0abacked Yes | 6c | 3,305$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,104.74 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 79c | 2,861$2,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,257.23 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 56c | 1,200$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.6 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 33c | 918.37$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.49 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…9b79backed Yes | 33c | 720.77$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.77 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 31cpaid | +351.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.29 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 18c | 666.16$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.43 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 18c | 464.08$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe518…e0cdbacked No | 39c | 400$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…604ebacked Yes | 48c | 300$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.9 | 172 | 29.7%51 W · 121 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…203cbacked No | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…f065backed Yes | 4c | 243.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.9 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed Yes | 36c | 235.29$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x559a…e9d4backed Yes | 31c | 211.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf368…873abacked No | 79c | 210.87$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…91b5backed No | 61c | 183.27$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 18c | 172.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.87 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…4cf3backed Yes | 15c | 87.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 October 6-12?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $116,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $118,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $120,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $122,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $132,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $134,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $136,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $138,000 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.