Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0975ff0966ca5a976acd6e605dd1b802c72dc8cd62c81f52847df05d6b7aae1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,382
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,259
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,382 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 0c | 13,399$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 10,303$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e5…b4bdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x181c…c6cdbacked Yes | 1c | 8,106$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9082…e0a7backed Yes | 12c | 5,400$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 50c | 4,859$2,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,426.33 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…141bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +339.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 21c | 3,711$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.14 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed Yes | 50c | 3,000$1,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…7547backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0556…b36abacked Yes | 1c | 2,973$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -86%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,861$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.49 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 45c | 2,614$1,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.1 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 77c | 2,567$1,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.4 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed No | 56c | 2,500$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cc…b5a4backed Yes | 10c | 2,170$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.46 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes | 7c | 1,957$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 11c | 1,410$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.5 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd33…cf51backed No | 55c | 1,355$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.16 | 41 | 65.9%27 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8a…4327backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 2c | 941.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 7c | 893.91$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 13c | 866.32$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 8c | 810$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked No | 52c | 673.08$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa869…5b41backed Yes | 2c | 660.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 50c | 517.24$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d27…c460backed Yes | 10c | 443.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38cb…2752backed Yes | 64c | 400$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…fba3backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4536…5488backed No | 74c | 389.27$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ed…2baebacked No | 75c | 362.97$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…52c2backed No | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ce…824bbacked Yes | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d6…f2ffbacked No | 61c | 263.9$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0c…6b6ebacked No | 76c | 250.7$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4962…d41dbacked No | 76c | 241.03$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 39c | 232.43$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.98 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf50b…3cadbacked No | 75c | 231.45$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e48…0327backed No | 77c | 229.38$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…d76abacked No | 77c | 228.99$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16d1…8810backed No | 76c | 214.68$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…0356backed No | 76c | 211.04$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed No | 72c | 208.33$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…b024backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…4064backed No | 76c | 183.22$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…7677backed Yes | 25c | 181.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x915e…80ccbacked No | 78c | 160.37$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 32c | 142.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.87 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb770…61cebacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d87…c36cbacked No | 79c | 127.85$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 72cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x962f…ad3bbacked No | 76c | 106.93$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc86b…a35abacked No | 77c | 94.88$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 37c | 83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…fb28backed No | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0509backed No | 76c | 64.43$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c1…037bbacked No | 76c | 62.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9877…68c8backed No | 76c | 58.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe8…ad70backed No | 75c | 58.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…4cf3backed Yes | 24c | 53.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c3…6542backed No | 76c | 50.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ed…6943backed No | 61c | 49.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x941a…3fe7backed No | 78c | 46.54$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…33d5backed Yes | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $116,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $118,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $120,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $122,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $132,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $134,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $136,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $138,000 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.