Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $120,000 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2735af3760f03e701ce3d55ae8810eedd39c2e0a9fbb7d02fe520732ac72c2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,432
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 59c | 20,460$12,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,444.13 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x79ed…1619backed No | 35c | 19,466$6,722 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,721.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 60c | 15,386$9,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,173.91 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 44c | 10,600$4,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,694 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 28c | 10,128$2,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,831.5 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…7240backed No | 53c | 8,880$4,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,662 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 53c | 6,814$3,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,201.72 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 67c | 6,276$4,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,082.38 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150 | 115 | 54.8%63 W · 52 L | +15.1wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 43c | 4,434$1,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,548.11 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9195…72a4backed No | 39c | 2,388$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…da0abacked Yes | 53c | 2,037$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.94 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 41c | 1,920$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,132.81 | 280 | 21.1%59 W · 221 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…5df1backed No | 29c | 1,656$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.85 | 76 | 19.7%15 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed No | 43c | 1,506$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$647.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 53c | 1,023$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.66 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…6770backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 48c | 980.75$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.64 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 62c | 788.71$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.11 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb60e…3574backed Yes | 43c | 673.21$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.36 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked Yes | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1366…753dbacked Yes | 60c | 400$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x994f…71edbacked Yes | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…c23fbacked No | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…7be3backed Yes | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked No | 42c | 280.86$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 62c | 241.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 11c | 230$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 34c | 211.12$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.3 | 61 | 11.5%7 W · 54 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda78…5c22backed No | 34c | 185.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd44…c3f9backed Yes | 33c | 181.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d27…c460backed No | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfda6…4eddbacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +189.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46c…7ffcbacked Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…942abacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc1…ce6ebacked Yes | 70c | 95.5$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73b4…4854backed No | 59c | 92.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…711cbacked No | 64c | 89.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277f…d41bbacked Yes | 39c | 85.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…346bbacked No | 56c | 74.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9737…f3b2backed No | 65c | 67.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df6…1888backed No | 50c | 62.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…274ebacked Yes | 50c | 60.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.07 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…de81backed Yes | 42c | 58.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa7…6b3fbacked No | 66c | 58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e2f…441dbacked Yes | 44c | 55.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bce…2c92backed Yes | 38c | 53.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…4a2dbacked Yes | 51c | 50.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92bc…6125backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…2214backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +236.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…d688backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3807…b0abbacked Yes | 53c | 47.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +124.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9c…b769backed Yes | 55c | 43.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed No | 57c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 41c | 40.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094f…b066backed Yes | 42c | 37.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x659a…60ebbacked No | 41c | 36.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6736…cd51backed Yes | 50c | 32.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3463backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 65c | 26.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb5…6baebacked Yes | 71c | 25.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…27f7backed No | 50c | 25.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x401c…70e3backed No | 52c | 24.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…a8c4backed Yes | 52c | 23.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $120,000 October 6-12?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $116,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $118,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $122,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $132,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $134,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $136,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $138,000 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.