Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $122,000 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ae4abd2be69ba866978d0a6a4a763debc3927f119060fafa85bd9d1738d1300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 61c | 11,416$6,907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,508.91 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9b…f652backed No | 42c | 4,583$1,913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,912.93 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed No | 37c | 4,400$1,628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,628 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 40c | 3,272$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.79 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…51d4backed No | 38c | 1,613$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.9 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x707e…1960backed Yes | 72c | 530.83$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 34c | 293.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…20debacked Yes | 65c | 290$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.3 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…3335backed No | 14c | 230$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed No | 37c | 202.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.75 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9c…7be3backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked No | 39c | 154.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c90…04dcbacked No | 37c | 133.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39a…2214backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +236.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…91a2backed No | 37c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…1eedbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 63cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…bbcfbacked Yes | 58c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $122,000 October 6-12?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $116,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $118,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $120,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $132,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $134,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $136,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $138,000 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.