Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x399c9049b3d6d9e65c90013de8bc5d9d997b0b7f56a99842c0bb24504f6547e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,290
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,290 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 2c | 12,200$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 40c | 11,381$4,552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,552.36 | 120 | 25%30 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c0…81d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,849$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc9…7361backed Yes | 1c | 8,027$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 83 | 2.4%2 W · 81 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 11c | 3,513$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.11 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Yes | 8c | 3,265$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.3 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,704$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -87.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,504$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.95 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9082…e0a7backed Yes | 17c | 2,250$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2615…c16dbacked No | 79c | 1,519$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.4 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -8.8wins | -0.21per pick | 64cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 12c | 1,174$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.64 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 69c | 1,080$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.16 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…b0d2backed No | 71c | 800$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3301…4dd8backed Yes | 7c | 629.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.81 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 27c | 529.63$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.19 | 120 | 12.5%15 W · 105 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3709…3d7ebacked Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…c23fbacked No | 71c | 404.23$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -76.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1366…753dbacked Yes | 31c | 403.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38cb…2752backed Yes | 38c | 290$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…9f71backed Yes | 15c | 256.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +153.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…4cf3backed Yes | 14c | 91.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ada…475bbacked No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…c846backed Yes | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5877…d3debacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9742…8559backed No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…d2a2backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f29…523ebacked No | 62c | 21.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…da0ebacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 October 6-12?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $116,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $118,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $120,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $122,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $132,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $134,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $136,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $138,000 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.