Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Bitcoin dip to $116,000 October 6-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0033c217a3f42a727f0f82b5a0683325ab859fac8ae38fb5add81d914d4fa22a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,786
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $152,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,786 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbfa5…3f52backed No | 0c | 25,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 42c | 14,215$5,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,301.17 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd643…0dd4backed No | 44c | 8,050$3,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,581.42 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1c…963ebacked Yes | 33c | 6,902$2,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,595.92 | 550 | 32.5%179 W · 371 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 24c | 6,729$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,128.11 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed No | 56c | 6,558$3,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,693.44 | 581 | 26.9%156 W · 425 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…a28dbacked Yes | 17c | 3,700$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,071 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +197.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 10c | 3,028$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,737.79 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1630…e3fdbacked Yes | 31c | 2,542$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,741.67 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +6.1wins | +0.32per pick | 21cpaid | +187.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bb…a429backed No | 55c | 2,300$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.5 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed No | 1c | 2,030$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…da0abacked Yes | 14c | 1,429$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.57 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed No | 43c | 1,163$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…ef3bbacked No | 79c | 1,154$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.84 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 11c | 1,055$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 234 | 11.1%26 W · 208 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 76c | 1,000$764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.5 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f16…da10backed Yes | 51c | 777.37$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…203cbacked No | 76c | 750$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…cd03backed Yes | 67c | 574.12$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.87 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a18…badcbacked No | 57c | 527.2$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe585…91b5backed No | 72c | 417.83$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed No | 42c | 375.22$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.55 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e77…e626backed No | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…944ebacked Yes | 17c | 284$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…9b79backed Yes | 28c | 261.27$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.53per pick | 31cpaid | +351.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 65c | 227.2$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…df01backed Yes | 20c | 176.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…f065backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ada…475bbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…f294backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 66c | 56.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Yes | 27c | 55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +16%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd4…4cf3backed Yes | 28c | 45.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 17cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…33d5backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bitcoin dip to $116,000 October 6-12?this page
- Will Bitcoin dip to $110,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $112,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $114,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $118,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $120,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin dip to $122,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $126,000 October 6-12?Yes won
- Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $132,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $134,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $136,000 October 6-12?No won
- Will Bitcoin reach $138,000 October 6-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.