TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0502…7547

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
31
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 60 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST2030%6 W · 14 L+4.0wins+0.20per pick10cpaid+73.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$53.4
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.36
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$39.53
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$18.49
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$45
Will Bitcoin reach $128,000 October 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$48
Will Solana dip to $190 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$192.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $110k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+525%+$210
Will XRP dip to $2.20 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+1,100%+$825
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$185
Will Bitcoin dip to $118,000 October 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+334.8%+$192.5
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$76
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Solana dip to $150 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$38
Will Bitcoin dip to $110K in August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 25, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$142.31
All 20 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rockets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST-100%-$16.9
Grizzlies vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+72.4%+$10.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Aug 17, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 319: Will Du Plessis win by decision? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$41.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Machado wears a dress or skirt during next Trump meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$29.7
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.