Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $190 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83fcf6eaf394a4e3f1c45352a46b76d39fbc1bb999a699fdecd21ea55c2d3771
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,647
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,647 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa279…0371backed Yes | 59c | 12,750$7,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,260.76 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 37c | 9,913$3,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,197.95 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed No | 37c | 7,904$2,952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,952.14 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a2…a79abacked No | 74c | 5,118$3,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,777 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -8.8wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c9…41b5backed No | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…3291backed No | 77c | 5,000$3,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,850 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 71cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 28c | 3,795$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,738.18 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked Yes | 48c | 3,039$1,445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,593.72 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…d732backed No | 74c | 2,530$1,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,872.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 30c | 2,155$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,507.06 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…cec9backed Yes | 34c | 2,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +8.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +301.4%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked No | 41c | 1,750$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked No | 62c | 1,378$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…ab4bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,003$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.95 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked No | 72c | 870.04$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.46 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -11.2wins | -0.35per pick | 72cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes | 38c | 700$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed No | 59c | 510$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.6 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…c76bbacked No | 52c | 500$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 150 | 23.3%35 W · 115 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8b…1614backed No | 79c | 404.04$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 36c | 388.47$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.16 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 26c | 307.57$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.6 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked No | 71c | 300$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda8…790ebacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +106.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x751a…9ea1backed No | 77c | 297.14$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.8 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0502…7547backed Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 10cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…81aebacked No | 67c | 206.91$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea4…bf4dbacked No | 66c | 168.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…f3bcbacked No | 72c | 148.72$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c78…329abacked No | 72c | 143.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc414…495abacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c90…04dcbacked No | 80c | 128.77$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | +22.9wins | +0.22per pick | 24cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x07ca…6fe7backed No | 73c | 91.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe641…525cbacked No | 65c | 85.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…91b0backed No | 72c | 65.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…2e8fbacked Yes | 29c | 63.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…0f5ebacked Yes | 28c | 58.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +152.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef34…1d61backed No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 179 | 53.6%96 W · 83 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 41c | 49.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 73c | 30.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 57c | 27.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.84 | 262 | 74.4%195 W · 67 L | +45.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…91a2backed No | 80c | 27.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 66cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4493…db5cbacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $190 in October?this page
- Will Solana dip to $120 in October?No won
- Will Solana dip to $150 in October?No won
- Will Solana dip to $170 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $175 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $180 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $185 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $195 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $200 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $225 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $230 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $235 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $240 in October?No won
- Will Solana reach $250 in October?No won
- Will Solana reach $300 in October?No won
- Will Solana reach $350 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.