Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Solana dip to $170 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2587b00e1c8258856d4c969221e9936715fa98a884779ce0ccfb46cc89be52f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $190,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf705…3ca7backed Yes | 10c | 44,102$4,533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,568.23 | 351 | 23.9%84 W · 267 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…0371backed No | 72c | 18,739$13,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,515.5 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 26c | 11,880$3,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,734.78 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes | 9c | 9,207$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,348.01 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55be…dca3backed Yes | 14c | 8,744$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,554.99 | 291 | 26.5%77 W · 214 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3da…a0f9backed Yes | 10c | 6,820$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,138.1 | 128 | 24.2%31 W · 97 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes | 9c | 5,504$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,012.31 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98b…bfc5backed Yes | 10c | 5,500$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,976.09 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +16.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes | 13c | 3,820$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,323.6 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x801d…d8e0backed No | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 138 | 63%87 W · 51 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 8c | 1,949$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,795.69 | 63 | 11.1%7 W · 56 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 4cpaid | +519.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes | 12c | 1,699$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.12 | 258 | 24%62 W · 196 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9066…c20abacked No | 67c | 1,553$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.43 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed No | 18c | 1,200$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…92e7backed Yes | 15c | 1,076$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.82 | 325 | 24.3%79 W · 246 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb5…a393backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 167 | 61.7%103 W · 64 L | +19.6wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked No | 76c | 700$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -11.2wins | -0.35per pick | 72cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 28-0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x5b33…2d2cbacked No | 79c | 688.15$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$543.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 65c | 400$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d0…438dbacked Yes | 12c | 208.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.99 | 305 | 31.1%95 W · 210 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…eef4backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 10c | 140.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23e9…109fbacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed No | 79c | 125$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22a9…2d50backed No | 80c | 61.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.55 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Solana dip to $170 in October?this page
- Will Solana dip to $120 in October?No won
- Will Solana dip to $150 in October?No won
- Will Solana dip to $175 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $180 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $185 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $190 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $195 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana dip to $200 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $225 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $230 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $235 in October?Yes won
- Will Solana reach $240 in October?No won
- Will Solana reach $250 in October?No won
- Will Solana reach $300 in October?No won
- Will Solana reach $350 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.