TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x23e9…109f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
105
Categories scored
16
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 56 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3148.4%15 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$50.91
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+292.2%+$292.24
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$543Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$153.15
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$104.08
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+223.9%+$1,119.41
Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$652.63
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+101.5%+$608.98
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$125.39
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Colombia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+76.7%+$76.74
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+73.8%+$221.39
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
Mexico vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$34.75
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.5
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advancebacked Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.78
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$69.49
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$108.33
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$66.67
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.4%+$19.18
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$77.9
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+63.5%+$31.75
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+38%+$38.02
Will Yorgos Lanthimos be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$143
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+49.9%+$49.95
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+127.4%+$254.65
Will Francine Maisler (Sinners) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Will The Life of Chuck be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$60
Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+53.8%+$28.85
Will F1 be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+1,566.7%+$313.33
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+63.8%+$63.76
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+59.8%+$107.56
Will Frankenstein be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Sinners be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Avatar 3 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-41.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Boxing — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map Handicap: ICE (-1.5) vs Acend (+1.5)backed Inner Circle Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$225.53
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$72.97
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Champions League Final: PSG vs. Inter Milanbacked Inter · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.