Movies · resolved market
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9223ddfda277ecf96cea52aba3d6a47e3bb001bf0173fb3e2145566c28e0c24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $729,032
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $729,032 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,041 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed Yes | 77c | 100,470$77,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,608.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd58…18f9backed Yes | 71c | 17,648$12,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,035.08 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 63c | 16,399$10,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,124.44 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 25c | 14,431$3,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,621.36 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 22c | 13,481$2,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,990.99 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 77c | 12,828$9,847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,980.97 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 36c | 12,561$4,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,091.96 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 22c | 9,668$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,151.63 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e93…4325backed Yes | 18c | 8,394$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,875.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 44c | 7,550$3,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,202.09 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03e8…1697backed No | 80c | 7,370$5,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,874.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.46per pick | 60cpaid | -76%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…699bbacked No | 23c | 7,103$1,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,656.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 23c | 6,777$1,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.79 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aec…1158backed No | 23c | 6,522$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 78c | 6,500$5,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfaf…7affbacked Yes | 73c | 6,319$4,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,709.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8a…2562backed Yes | 75c | 6,011$4,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,486.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1b…6bc3backed Yes | 22c | 5,500$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,309.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe557…a3f1backed No | 17c | 5,436$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x454c…bd22backed Yes | 20c | 5,370$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,296.56 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +208.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed Yes | 73c | 5,000$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,349.99 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 17c | 4,902$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,073.18 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 74c | 4,595$3,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,417.89 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2721…325bbacked No | 30c | 4,446$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.77 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 77c | 4,304$3,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.67 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…9e74backed Yes | 71c | 4,022$2,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.98 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked No | 30c | 4,020$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 23c | 4,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 79c | 3,797$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$797.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9e…c707backed Yes | 29c | 3,782$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,682.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +243.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 23c | 3,750$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x562b…dc09backed No | 42c | 3,711$1,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,554.04 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…d3dfbacked Yes | 74c | 3,472$2,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8214…ef72backed Yes | 75c | 3,306$2,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$832.01 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed No | 39c | 3,069$1,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,192 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes | 73c | 2,900$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e2…ce3cbacked Yes | 31c | 2,725$840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,884.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 74c | 2,677$1,981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.9 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes | 34c | 2,655$898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 18c | 2,581$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.86 | 230 | 41.7%96 W · 134 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x539d…0213backed No | 43c | 2,473$1,055 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,055.39 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 53c | 2,408$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.92 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 19c | 2,395$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.23 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 47c | 2,341$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.95 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 54c | 2,284$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.01 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 28c | 2,099$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.06 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 23c | 2,081$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.35 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb17a…fe13backed Yes | 78c | 2,000$1,560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ed…cd7fbacked Yes | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…9db6backed Yes | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 41c | 1,975$809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,166.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5b…e8dfbacked Yes | 43c | 1,906$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5b…a790backed Yes | 74c | 1,846$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed No | 28c | 1,794$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.03 | 71 | 36.6%26 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755d…37e7backed Yes | 77c | 1,734$1,335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…7cc9backed No | 23c | 1,649$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 27c | 1,592$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.5 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked No | 68c | 1,584$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.18 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 43c | 1,571$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.83 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 40c | 1,492$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.66 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 24c | 1,461$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.77 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 34c | 1,423$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.33 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed No | 73c | 1,383$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 52c | 1,347$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.49 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4387…2b3dbacked No | 75c | 1,317$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 26c | 1,304$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.94 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf26f…97b0backed Yes | 77c | 1,296$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.75 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed Yes | 78c | 1,288$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.46 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…bcefbacked Yes | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5d…31b9backed No | 61c | 1,239$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 72c | 1,230$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.9 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 18c | 1,224$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.79 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d10abacked Yes | 23c | 1,221$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.91 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80a2…838bbacked No | 49c | 1,213$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.94 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -83.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b90…8cdcbacked No | 72c | 1,181$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes | 21c | 1,164$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.91 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +142.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f0…1852backed Yes | 75c | 1,161$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…8277backed Yes | 78c | 1,160$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 51c | 1,150$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.67 | 133 | 21.1%28 W · 105 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 22c | 1,144$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.68 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416b…bad6backed Yes | 29c | 1,140$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.98 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…fb12backed No | 73c | 1,136$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.28 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 53c | 1,111$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672b…68d2backed Yes | 29c | 1,097$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.87 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 62c | 1,086$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.31 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 61c | 1,066$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.26 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Yes | 34c | 1,023$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.03 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Yes | 18c | 1,020$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.8 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 18c | 1,015$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…ca83backed Yes | 19c | 1,002$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +338.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 77c | 1,000$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…b17ebacked Yes | 79c | 1,000$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.59 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x115a…e4a6backed No | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Yes | 17c | 999.97$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 23c | 999.96$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 52c | 953.67$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.67 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742c…acc0backed No | 71c | 946.37$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.01 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked No | 73c | 940$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 43c | 938.21$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.05 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Adam Sandler win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Akira Emoto win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Andrew Garfield win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Delroy Lindo win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Diego Luna win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jack O'Connell win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Jonathan Bailey win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Miles Caton win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Paul Mescal win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Peter Dinklage win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sean Bean win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.