TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$729,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $729,032 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,041 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd22…ad91backed Yes77c100,470$77,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,608.15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed Yes71c17,648$12,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,035.08560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Yes63c16,399$10,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,124.441936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No25c14,431$3,621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,621.362222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No22c13,481$2,991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,990.992937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes77c12,828$9,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,980.9717751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes36c12,561$4,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,091.9617821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No22c9,668$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,151.635612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e93…4325backed Yes18c8,394$1,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,875.75633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+85.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7ad…4953backed Yes44c7,550$3,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,202.094930.6%15 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+21.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed No80c7,370$5,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,874.59714.3%1 W · 6 L-3.2wins-0.46per pick60cpaid-76%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3054…699bbacked No23c7,103$1,657 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,656.6825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No23c6,777$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.791216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick10cpaid-17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8aec…1158backed No23c6,522$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes78c6,500$5,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4302857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfaf…7affbacked Yes73c6,319$4,610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb8a…2562backed Yes75c6,011$4,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,486.17580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b1b…6bc3backed Yes22c5,500$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,309.98333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+54.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe557…a3f1backed No17c5,436$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.05911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick26cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes20c5,370$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,296.56258%2 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+208.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed Yes73c5,000$3,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.991275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes17c4,902$829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,073.183938.5%15 W · 24 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No74c4,595$3,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,417.8948236.3%175 W · 307 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2721…325bbacked No30c4,446$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.772236.4%8 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-39%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes77c4,304$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.671643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x766f…9e74backed Yes71c4,022$2,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.983063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked No30c4,020$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.55850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No23c4,000$920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-68.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes79c3,797$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.47742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+43.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c9e…c707backed Yes29c3,782$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,682.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+243.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed No23c3,750$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8451457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+73.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x562b…dc09backed No42c3,711$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.042927.6%8 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-36.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x079a…d3dfbacked Yes74c3,472$2,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Yes75c3,306$2,474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.011637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…a568backed No39c3,069$1,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1921553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+42%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b4…1e3ebacked Yes73c2,900$2,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.991457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19e2…ce3cbacked Yes31c2,725$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,884.49540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes74c2,677$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.93043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes34c2,655$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,756.74333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No18c2,581$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.8623041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x539d…0213backed No43c2,473$1,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.391060%6 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes53c2,408$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.921414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-70.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb886…81b3backed No19c2,395$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.23248.3%2 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a08…2e25backed Yes47c2,341$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.954650%23 W · 23 L+8.3wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes54c2,284$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,054.012626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed No28c2,099$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.063923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed No23c2,081$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.351625%4 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb17a…fe13backed Yes78c2,000$1,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11ed…cd7fbacked Yes27c2,000$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4601100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7164…9db6backed Yes74c2,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes41c1,975$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.482045%9 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-7.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb5b…e8dfbacked Yes43c1,906$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.281050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c5b…a790backed Yes74c1,846$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.43100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No28c1,794$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.037136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed Yes77c1,734$1,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+51.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa5…7cc9backed No23c1,649$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked No27c1,592$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.524634.6%85 W · 161 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No68c1,584$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.182828.6%8 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed No43c1,571$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.835529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No22c1,500$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97c2…55d6backed No40c1,492$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.662268.2%15 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No24c1,461$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.777448.6%36 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No34c1,423$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.337125.4%18 W · 53 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed No73c1,383$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.291145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+21.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes52c1,347$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.4910632.1%34 W · 72 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4387…2b3dbacked No75c1,317$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.2960%0 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes26c1,304$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.946229%18 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf26f…97b0backed Yes77c1,296$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.755100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+54.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes78c1,288$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.464250%21 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Yes79c1,266$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.82366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-16.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5d…31b9backed No61c1,239$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750.21643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No72c1,230$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.913130.5%40 W · 91 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No18c1,224$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.798332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38d6…d10abacked Yes23c1,221$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945.911526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80a2…838bbacked No49c1,213$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.94911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick32cpaid-83.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b90…8cdcbacked No72c1,181$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-65.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3fb…4a87backed Yes21c1,164$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.91475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+142.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f0…1852backed Yes75c1,161$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cf1…8277backed Yes78c1,160$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes51c1,150$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.6713321.1%28 W · 105 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No22c1,144$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.68757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed Yes29c1,140$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.985523.6%13 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0caa…fb12backed No73c1,136$829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.281050%5 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes53c1,111$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.16560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x672b…68d2backed Yes29c1,097$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.871136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc094…c8d4backed No62c1,086$670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.311729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-51.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes61c1,066$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.2618444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Yes34c1,023$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$671.031030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-37.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Yes18c1,020$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.81250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No18c1,015$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.31637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f20…ca83backed Yes19c1,002$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.68450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+338.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c37…92a4backed Yes77c1,000$773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick56cpaid+46.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked Yes79c1,000$789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.593339.4%13 W · 20 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-25.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x115a…e4a6backed No28c1,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280263.8%1 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick12cpaid-85.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Yes17c999.97$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.98540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+64.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked No23c999.96$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.993125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-20.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes52c953.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.674544.4%20 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x742c…acc0backed No71c946.37$676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$676.012920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid+18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca36…bb1dbacked No73c940$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.21435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No43c938.21$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.054233.3%14 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.