TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Paul Mescal win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$46,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,408 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c7,701$32 inLost-$31.781,3948%111 W · 1,283 L-47.9wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes6c7,191$457 inLost-$457.2317821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecc…53a9backed Yes8c3,377$282 inLost-$281.9723741.4%98 W · 139 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c3,310$17 inLost-$16.721114.5%5 W · 106 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes8c1,500$123 inLost-$12318444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c1,240$59 inLost-$58.57894.5%4 W · 85 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-42.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes2c999.96$22 inLost-$22140%0 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c6e…ccc7backed Yes9c440.8$40 inLost-$39.67812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.18per pick30cpaid-79.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x416b…bad6backed Yes9c402.36$35 inLost-$34.515523.6%13 W · 42 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes13c352$46 inLost-$45.763438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3e35…384fbacked Yes13c349$45 inLost-$45.372853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+23.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed Yes13c187$24 inLost-$24.312142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes7c163.88$11 inLost-$11.47674.5%3 W · 64 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x895d…3778backed Yes9c151$13 inLost-$13.085523.6%13 W · 42 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick13cpaid+138.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x04da…dc10backed Yes13c132$17 inLost-$17.161723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-63.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb53…0412backed Yes10c102.58$10 inLost-$10.3140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Yes11c100$11 inLost-$111526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b30…29a4backed Yes11c100$11 inLost-$111729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$102250%11 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8c3…7dd2backed Yes15c97.53$14 inLost-$14.482437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+101.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2189…ab01backed Yes22c67.58$15 inLost-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.