TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,095,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,095,087 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,018 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc0ec…f78dbacked Yes70c70,923$49,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,646.120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cdc…cc11backed No30c70,923$21,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,646.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+129.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf19f…7c8bbacked Yes70c69,960$48,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,728.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9afe…6d26backed No30c69,960$21,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,728.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+229.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49a…aa95backed No40c30,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,000.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8f…8285backed Yes61c30,000$18,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfc0…a547backed Yes62c30,000$18,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,599.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcba1…9276backed Yes63c30,000$18,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x33aa…f044backed Yes60c30,000$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb56b…a7f0backed No37c30,000$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,9001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39ef…6b81backed No39c30,000$11,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a3…d060backed No38c30,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa353…adddbacked Yes65c30,000$19,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78f3…5d42backed Yes61c30,000$18,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b8…13a6backed No42c30,000$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb663…b93bbacked Yes61c30,000$18,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,301.410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25b3…164ebacked Yes61c30,000$18,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c5e…3458backed Yes64c30,000$19,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc3…0b41backed Yes64c30,000$19,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc457…9f9fbacked Yes62c30,000$18,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,600.310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40ee…589dbacked No39c30,000$11,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x76a0…06ebbacked No37c30,000$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,9001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe6…b665backed Yes62c30,000$18,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccf8…1e6cbacked No38c30,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4fb…6851backed Yes64c30,000$19,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd501…ea71backed No39c30,000$11,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,300.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2e7…4907backed Yes62c30,000$18,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa917…a382backed No38c30,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0b3…e926backed Yes61c30,000$18,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfd…271ebacked No38c30,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a8…083fbacked Yes61c30,000$18,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac0a…6797backed Yes61c30,000$18,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb108…67adbacked No39c30,000$11,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa16…e2f9backed No36c30,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9308…5bc6backed Yes61c30,000$18,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x445a…0e75backed Yes62c30,000$18,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6c…1af6backed No37c30,000$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,9001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e2d…ea46backed No37c30,000$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,9001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe896…7410backed No36c30,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb7…c197backed Yes63c30,000$18,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf94f…7e51backed Yes59c30,000$17,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,70010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ac6…419cbacked Yes63c30,000$18,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x486d…f767backed No39c30,000$11,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7682…03dfbacked Yes62c30,000$18,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x623e…a700backed No39c30,000$11,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a0b…14adbacked Yes65c30,000$19,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72ff…9b67backed Yes60c30,000$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d63…6b04backed Yes63c30,000$18,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5bd…dec0backed No39c30,000$11,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0124…3890backed No39c30,000$11,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3f…8afdbacked No40c30,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,0001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb454…46f7backed No39c30,000$11,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4526…7235backed Yes63c30,000$18,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,896.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90cd…15a4backed Yes63c30,000$18,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x74fe…471dbacked No38c30,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9085…2617backed No36c30,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cd3…4e92backed Yes63c30,000$18,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbabc…b921backed No37c30,000$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,9001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97bc…6148backed No39c30,000$11,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacb9…9740backed No42c30,000$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a33…f72dbacked Yes61c30,000$18,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cc7…781ebacked No42c30,000$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc262…848ebacked No37c30,000$11,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,9001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16dd…0f86backed Yes58c30,000$17,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,40010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7826…45a2backed No38c30,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,6001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x14a1…a660backed Yes65c30,000$19,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbce2…2896backed Yes63c30,000$18,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,897.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd3…38c0backed Yes62c30,000$18,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,60010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ad…0df3backed No41c30,000$12,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,7001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5135…4a44backed No43c30,000$12,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,102.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe98f…1315backed No36c30,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c30…10f8backed Yes64c30,000$19,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac2…be52backed No36c30,000$10,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,2001100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4ba…62d5backed Yes61c30,000$18,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,30010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd58…18f9backed No68c17,083$11,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,385.89560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfafd…8233backed No35c16,914$5,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,994.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0759…147dbacked Yes65c16,914$10,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,994.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes31c12,488$3,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,882.941457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.1wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+73.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9529…75b4backed Yes16c11,665$1,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,913.710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ba…6a41backed Yes62c10,800$6,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,69610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x47c1…825fbacked Yes27c8,984$2,392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,392.3429.5%4 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x24a5…5d07backed Yes42c8,583$3,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,580.2950%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7479…d35fbacked Yes38c8,560$3,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,288.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes70c8,274$5,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7781968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+52.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc444…20dabacked Yes44c7,592$3,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,357.440%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5018…6108backed Yes31c6,523$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e25…57c7backed Yes66c6,494$4,294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,29410%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No69c5,913$4,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,837.727136.6%26 W · 45 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes20c5,579$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.982441.7%10 W · 14 L+3.7wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x23b9…0b21backed Yes16c5,542$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.16911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No30c5,184$1,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,621.15875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+69.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd383…05fdbacked Yes42c4,955$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Yes71c4,646$3,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,288.23250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b90…8cdcbacked Yes52c4,635$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick37cpaid-65.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07aa…b60abacked No58c4,475$2,596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,879.52100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick43cpaid+171.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes66c4,403$2,912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,912.4914628.1%41 W · 105 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No34c4,240$1,436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,803.892222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-52.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd84b…0df3backed Yes19c4,145$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.033026.7%8 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes68c4,000$2,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,719.995362.3%33 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c3,743$2,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,512.0936538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.