Movies · resolved market
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf811fcf5edc733781bee6125756d3e1f02d04f2824b89ab7fa4f4ce30f998b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,593 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 12c | 3,621$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.6 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked No | 9c | 2,173$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.8 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0336…4bb0backed No | 11c | 2,025$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.72 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 8c | 2,005$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.95 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 9c | 1,628$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.92 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked No | 30c | 1,493$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.95 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2de2…feabbacked Yes | 36c | 1,486$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$954.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 14c | 1,483$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.18 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -7.5wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…e858backed Yes | 60c | 1,323$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 4c | 1,295$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 17c | 1,237$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.91 | 156 | 41.7%65 W · 91 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes | 53c | 1,120$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49dd…2a32backed No | 8c | 1,120$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.19 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…35bebacked No | 41c | 1,115$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed Yes | 59c | 1,045$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d9…4c53backed Yes | 59c | 931$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.71 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…55d9backed No | 41c | 901$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58e1…a5cdbacked No | 39c | 900$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.84 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 9c | 896.93$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.72 | 201 | 3.5%7 W · 194 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca36…bb1dbacked No | 40c | 892$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.8 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed No | 22c | 881$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.59 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 59c | 867$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.47 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes | 61c | 858$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8624…b484backed Yes | 59c | 849$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.09 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 66c | 840.19$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c6…e25ebacked No | 13c | 838$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed No | 10c | 809.53$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.95 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -62%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed No | 40c | 792$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.38 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked Yes | 61c | 788$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd786…857abacked No | 41c | 776$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.16 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 34cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed No | 41c | 762$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6789…52f9backed Yes | 60c | 761$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…4a94backed No | 40c | 761$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b9…d0c7backed No | 54c | 757$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.11 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed No | 40c | 717$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.8 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d17…0e2bbacked No | 47c | 703$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.41 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 9c | 695.3$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.29 | 204 | 2.9%6 W · 198 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…b550backed No | 12c | 692$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…d837backed Yes | 59c | 668$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.69 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…53e0backed No | 40c | 656$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.4 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 60c | 646$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.4 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaece…87f3backed No | 16c | 642.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ae…e13abacked No | 39c | 622$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…b461backed Yes | 60c | 597$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.8 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x605c…83dcbacked No | 41c | 587$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab88…e0a4backed No | 40c | 578$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.75 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 10c | 575$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce12…0e76backed No | 9c | 575$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 9c | 568.21$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 560.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 66c | 546$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.94 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed Yes | 59c | 546$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 59c | 540$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +77%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbd…17c9backed No | 42c | 533$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…c6fbbacked No | 39c | 526$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.14 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe62…6d76backed No | 41c | 519$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fcd2backed No | 41c | 510$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +120.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb728…fc92backed Yes | 27c | 496.59$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…61f6backed No | 10c | 495.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed No | 12c | 494.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.55 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 31c | 492.46$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.32 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 9c | 485$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed No | 40c | 476$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 49cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfc…e387backed No | 5c | 468.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 12c | 464.11$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 9c | 453$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…4018backed Yes | 57c | 451$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked No | 16c | 451$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 39cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c12…d725backed Yes | 59c | 447$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No | 47c | 445$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.15 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 59c | 434.5$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.12 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +5.9wins | +0.20per pick | 59cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x76f8…5145backed Yes | 60c | 428$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.8 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…6adabacked Yes | 72c | 422.01$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes | 61c | 422$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.58 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked No | 40c | 421$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 59c | 420$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.2 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03b2…567cbacked Yes | 61c | 415$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.85 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee9e…efb7backed Yes | 50c | 406.54$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.27 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…c913backed Yes | 60c | 402$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 10c | 400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 167 | 41.9%70 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 57c | 396$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.9 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…1ff0backed No | 40c | 389$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.87 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcde9…d705backed No | 39c | 382$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…e642backed Yes | 59c | 372$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.52 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes | 61c | 370$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.3 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b9…d5eabacked Yes | 35c | 366.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +53%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…8bf6backed Yes | 58c | 358$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 11c | 357.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 40c | 356$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc123…115cbacked Yes | 60c | 354$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.01 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes | 60c | 353$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.2 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 5c | 347.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f0…f05fbacked Yes | 61c | 344$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.16 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 40cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe513…b842backed No | 48c | 337$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.76 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf55…7d8abacked No | 54c | 335$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 59c | 333$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked No | 10c | 326.71$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -84%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 50c | 325$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.5 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed No | 10c | 324$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 57c | 320.82$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.11 | 90 | 21.1%19 W · 71 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Hamnet win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Sinners win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Phoenician Scheme win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.