TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,593

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,593 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed No12c3,621$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.629926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x588d…099abacked No9c2,173$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.83324.2%8 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0336…4bb0backed No11c2,025$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.721625%4 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No8c2,005$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.955135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No9c1,628$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.927931.6%25 W · 54 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked No30c1,493$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.951353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2de2…feabbacked Yes36c1,486$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.43922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+79.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No14c1,483$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.18319.7%3 W · 28 L-7.5wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-84.8%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xc771…e858backed Yes60c1,323$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.21546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked No4c1,295$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.45612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-76%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No17c1,237$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9115641.7%65 W · 91 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…db2abacked Yes53c1,120$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.41533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed No8c1,120$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.193923.1%9 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffff…35bebacked No41c1,115$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.73922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick38cpaid-44.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2bb…4569backed Yes59c1,045$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.451361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07d9…4c53backed Yes59c931$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.71837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid+14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54f2…55d9backed No41c901$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.41520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58e1…a5cdbacked No39c900$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.841631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No9c896.93$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.722013.5%7 W · 194 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-47.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca36…bb1dbacked No40c892$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.81435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d8…9f12backed No22c881$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.592638.5%10 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes59c867$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.472157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes61c858$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.621060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+80.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8624…b484backed Yes59c849$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.094542.2%19 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No66c840.19$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55234651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x11c6…e25ebacked No13c838$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-49%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aee…c139backed No10c809.53$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.951010%1 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-62%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd719…d8e5backed No40c792$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.382941.4%12 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f7…395ebacked Yes61c788$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.361118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-70.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd786…857abacked No41c776$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.161010%1 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick34cpaid-63%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2566…7d60backed No41c762$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.421163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6789…52f9backed Yes60c761$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+27.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x319c…4a94backed No40c761$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.4633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed No54c757$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.113655.6%20 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf40b…7181backed No40c717$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.83432.4%11 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-24.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked No47c703$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.411656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+58.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No9c695.3$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.292042.9%6 W · 198 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-51.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaa…b550backed No12c692$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.04837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-10.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ae4…d837backed Yes59c668$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.691258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6a…53e0backed No40c656$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.42356.5%13 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+32.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed Yes60c646$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.43056.7%17 W · 13 L+4.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+21%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaece…87f3backed No16c642.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65ae…e13abacked No39c622$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.58742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-40.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f5…b461backed Yes60c597$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.82445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked No41c587$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.671540%6 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab88…e0a4backed No40c578$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.753938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed No10c575$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.55529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce12…0e76backed No9c575$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.75633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid+26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed No9c568.21$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.312343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No8c560.39$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.442781.8%5 W · 273 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed No66c546$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.9418444%81 W · 103 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2232…a794backed Yes59c546$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.86862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes59c540$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.4475%3 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.32per pick43cpaid+77%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcfbd…17c9backed No42c533$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.861346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe17a…c6fbbacked No39c526$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.141741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe62…6d76backed No41c519$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.79728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-43.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa48a…fcd2backed No41c510$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.1475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.29per pick47cpaid+120.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb728…fc92backed Yes27c496.59$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.961233.3%4 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1534…61f6backed No10c495.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+33.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed No12c494.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.551921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-31.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No31c492.46$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.3236538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked No9c485$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.651957.9%11 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.21per pick37cpaid+71.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5322…95e1backed No40c476$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick49cpaid-70.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdbfc…e387backed No5c468.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No12c464.11$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.5826641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6813…39e6backed No9c453$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.77728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5784…4018backed Yes57c451$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.842142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3087…f8fbbacked No16c451$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.16771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+153.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c12…d725backed Yes59c447$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.271225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-53.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked No47c445$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.151637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-28.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d75…78b9backed Yes59c434.5$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.122979.3%23 W · 6 L+5.9wins+0.20per pick59cpaid+36.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed Yes60c428$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.83743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78c5…6adabacked Yes72c422.01$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe36c…a6f0backed Yes61c422$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.582540%10 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+23.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2145…1e5dbacked No40c421$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.41030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8737…2bffbacked Yes59c420$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.23141.9%13 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x03b2…567cbacked Yes61c415$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.853056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee9e…efb7backed Yes50c406.54$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.273438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.0wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed Yes60c402$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-13.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No10c400$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5916741.9%70 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed Yes57c396$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.92931%9 W · 20 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-38%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb338…1ff0backed No40c389$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.873240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed No39c382$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.981428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x253f…e642backed Yes59c372$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.522437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Yes61c370$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.3922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-63.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4b9…d5eabacked Yes35c366.98$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.13666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+53%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1633…8bf6backed Yes58c358$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.36850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+52.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No11c357.35$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.513910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed No40c356$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.41947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick35cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc123…115cbacked Yes60c354$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.012653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdaf…f63cbacked Yes60c353$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.22552%13 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No5c347.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.586127.9%17 W · 44 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f0…f05fbacked Yes61c344$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.16771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick40cpaid+101.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe513…b842backed No48c337$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.763246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf55…7d8abacked No54c335$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.92147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes59c333$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.531947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fc5…610ebacked No10c326.71$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.07496.1%3 W · 46 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick16cpaid-84%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed No50c325$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.53751.4%19 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9c…6216backed No10c324$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.45444.4%24 W · 30 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes57c320.82$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.119021.1%19 W · 71 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.