Movies · resolved market
Will Sinners win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e3433f79c616df13c4955a7134e595ee2ccf4866dce309925e755737b872271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,163$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 56 | 12.5%7 W · 49 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 6c | 1,925$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.82 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…d4aabacked Yes | 7c | 963.85$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09aa…bdb6backed Yes | 6c | 812.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 6c | 736.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.69 | 69 | 17.4%12 W · 57 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 6c | 681.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaaa…4eabbacked Yes | 16c | 639.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 554.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 129 | 23.3%30 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 495.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 154 | 9.7%15 W · 139 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked Yes | 5c | 487$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 246 | 34.6%85 W · 161 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 486.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 7c | 430$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…ccfabacked Yes | 13c | 398$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 5c | 387.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 7c | 350$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 285 | 28.8%82 W · 203 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8d…2862backed Yes | 7c | 296.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa284…fbbabacked Yes | 5c | 289.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 8c | 256.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 14c | 192.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…fe52backed Yes | 5c | 187.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bb…3e98backed Yes | 12c | 87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sinners win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?this page
- Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?Yes won
- Will Hamnet win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Marty Supreme win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will One Battle After Another win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will The Phoenician Scheme win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
- Will Wicked: For Good win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.