TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9ac7…78c7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
64
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Movies, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 56 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+80.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Movies — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$173.55
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$436Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$435.78
Will The Secret Agent win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$930Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$326.82
Will Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$614.84
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$135.78
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$523Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$334.62
Will "The Perfect Neighbour" win Best Documentary at the 2026 BAFTA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$289Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$289.12
Will Nina Gold (Hamnet) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$363Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+29.9%+$108.33
Will Paul Mescal be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+488.2%+$117.03
Will "The Spongebob Movie: Search for SquarePants" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 21m and 24m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$11.96
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.78
Will Israel strike 2 countries in April 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$169.4
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$266Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.24
Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be at least 22,000 by March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$55.02
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$162.96
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+92.3%+$132
Will USD reach 1.7M Iranian rials by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$502Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+85.2%+$427.34
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+257.1%+$208.08
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$294.69
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+223.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be exactly 9 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.08
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$390.72
Will there be at least 1650 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,047Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$588.96
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$108.3
Will fewer than 1550 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+61.3%+$161.88
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$147Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$146.64
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$348Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$348
All 7 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+124.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+217.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocksbacked Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$217Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$217.29
Charleston Cougars vs. Campbell Fighting Camelsbacked Charleston Cougars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT+354.5%+$483.6
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Ole Miss Rebelsbacked Alabama Crimson Tide · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+397.5%+$155.01
All 3 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+37%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$881Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$587.2
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-02-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$190.26
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+455.6%+$599.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+284.6%+$157.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+33.3%+$33
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Howard Lutnick be named in newly released Epstein files by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$42.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$252Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$252
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.