TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$120,870
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$121,710

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,870 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x04f7…184abacked No52c36,006$18,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,282.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fbe…1b01backed Yes48c36,006$17,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,282.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Yes26c8,240$2,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,158.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No70c3,991$2,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.8519440.2%78 W · 116 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No71c3,478$2,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.547931.6%25 W · 54 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-17%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d48…d6f1backed Yes53c1,774$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.22757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No80c1,635$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb18…2372backed No27c1,347$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.31955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes29c1,086$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.1214015%21 W · 119 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-25.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes13c993.59$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.058332.5%27 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-38.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd134…5558backed Yes53c936$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.081747.1%8 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5372…5f61backed No47c933$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.491266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+17.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes26c929.49$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.315621.4%12 W · 44 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No47c914$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.422937.9%11 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ed…ec87backed No47c863$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.39955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33e2…e1babacked No46c822$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.881338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcde9…d705backed Yes54c815$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.11428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-22.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5661…ef17backed No36c811$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.04862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+38.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac7…78c7backed Yes54c807$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.781060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+80.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c90…17fbbacked No46c800$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.27per pick51cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x40a1…8919backed Yes64c762$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.68922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-40.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x82dd…5514backed Yes73c704$514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.921428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Yes73c643$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.392231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3087…f8fbbacked No10c638$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+153.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed Yes54c619$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.262441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab9…2ff1backed No46c619$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.26450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb75…f496backed Yes5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302814.3%4 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd7e…275ebacked No10c585$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.5850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+116.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90ee…801bbacked Yes22c582.32$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.421361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick44cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506732.8%22 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No36c443.01$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+180.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked No75c419.94$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes73c387$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.511540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb862…5aaebacked No27c387$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.511850%9 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x547d…ea58backed Yes66c379.29$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.24425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-57%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x897a…4194backed No58c336.06$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.271442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick26cpaid+161%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed Yes42c277.73$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa30f…ba97backed Yes33c269.9$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No32c250.31$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed Yes64c243.44$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.81770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9da2…9a1abacked Yes46c217.39$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes25c196.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.916015.6%25 W · 135 L-26.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-70.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0xa1d9…2261backed No27c184.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+269%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes65c175.01$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4913135.1%46 W · 85 L-14.0wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-36.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a97…1f4bbacked No43c169.2$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No38c158.59$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.537619.7%15 W · 61 L+0.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb941…1619backed Yes36c153.64$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2967…f4c9backed Yes43c143.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd90f…b6dabacked No44c141.11$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+176.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ad8…9756backed No67c139$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.87425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-62.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc315…6411backed Yes33c139$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.87955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick34cpaid+46.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes17c137.58$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.042516%4 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes25c131.09$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.323636.1%13 W · 23 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-37.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes23c128.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3814337.1%53 W · 90 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x755d…6accbacked Yes35c127$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.376331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa16d…f7e3backed Yes42c123.77$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes27c122.21$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd12a…fb09backed No15c107.38$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+562.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcd0…5da9backed Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85ee…a64abacked No57c100$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433729.7%11 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x42b0…7904backed Yes60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2375…5ee0backed No29c99.73$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+72.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ee…9e81backed No32c98.46$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.74633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ab4…5c9cbacked Yes52c96$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-70.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba38…f74dbacked No50c89.49$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f6…004fbacked No41c80.19$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.073658.3%21 W · 15 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+40.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6383…1346backed Yes35c78.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.76771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick46cpaid+37%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b07…a7c5backed Yes52c78.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No37c74.59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8513333.1%44 W · 89 L-10.3wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6c0…5d68backed Yes46c74.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d15…4f14backed Yes70c72.67$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x549c…ad91backed Yes77c71.76$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.51425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26f2…84abbacked Yes48c69$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No60c66.54$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.42810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick14cpaid+38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2869…527dbacked Yes41c65.84$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.76520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-50.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51f2…38efbacked No19c65.26$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.562142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No38c65.05$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3487033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc32e…23bdbacked Yes79c63.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb81…4563backed Yes75c62.39$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.621080%8 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee6b…e9d8backed No73c60$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce42…9090backed No77c59.9$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6135…efa0backed Yes53c58.21$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes74c57.79$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.761947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-17.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes69c52.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa575…f2d0backed Yes52c51.35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.91118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.23per pick41cpaid-73.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes34c49.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.556917.4%12 W · 57 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes35c49$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.914827.1%13 W · 35 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5829…e46bbacked Yes64c49$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.361030%3 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9998…e858backed Yes42c46.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.47944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes58c45.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.194930.6%15 W · 34 L-8.1wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-47.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x54e9…f5cdbacked Yes56c42.66$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes70c42.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5411184.7%94 W · 17 L+11.3wins+0.10per pick74cpaid+13.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f8d…a2c4backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x203c…3418backed Yes40c39.79$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa159…ac8ebacked Yes64c39.06$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2560%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fa1…deebbacked No40c38.76$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.441464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f2b…8775backed Yes39c38.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes50c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes44c34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.011553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid-7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.