TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7fa1…deeb

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
91
Categories scored
21
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 58 out of 100; worst Stocks at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT1464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+32.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Movies — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "The Witness" be the #2 global Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$12.28
Will "The Boroughs" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.92
Will "Nemesis" be the top US Netflix show this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+131.7%+$16.49
Will "Swapped" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.92
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.08
Will "Worst Ex Ever: Season 2" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.56
Will "Mortal Kombat II" score at least 65 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.42
Will Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+152.9%+$23.44
Will "Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$12.5
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be greater than 21m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
Will "Virgin River: Season 7" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$12.48
Will "Tyler Perry's Joe's College Road Trip" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+96.1%+$10.29
Will "Finding Her Edge" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (January 27, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+35.8%+$10.28
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+94.8%+$10
All 14 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT1080%8 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C or higher on March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$7.5
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -10°C or below on January 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+40.8%+$5.22
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on January 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$13.14
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 44-45°F on January 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+37%+$4.59
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 46°F or higher on January 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+47.3%+$5.14
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on January 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+26.6%+$2.73
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on January 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$10.95
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+33.3%+$4.5
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 0°C on January 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST+28.2%+$2.86
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 34°F or higher on January 2?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+33.3%+$5.5
All 10 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+28.1%+$5.36
Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+47.6%+$8
Will Czechia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.55
Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.8
Will Latvia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+54.3%+$8.8
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the #1 song on Spotify this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5
Will 'Luck... or Something' - Hilary Duff debut week album sales be at least 40k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$12.38
Will 'Don't Be Dumb' debut week album sales be less than 75k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+33%+$10.42
All 8 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-42.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-45.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+115.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.38per pick57cpaid-70.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Stocks — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+26.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+103.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$17.4
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+83.1%+$14.21
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+88.3%+$9.74
All 3 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+64.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+202.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+58.5%+$47.75
Ravens vs. Packersbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$27.06
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michael Olise record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$14
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Amanda Edwards win TX-18 Special Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+77.5%+$12.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascendbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+35.1%+$5.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.06
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.