Music · resolved market
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabf156741411337b95b9fffb22081171fdb5092d6f90576d79f253464350abcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,115
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x02f5…18a3backed Yes | 1c | 13,500$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 7,747$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.87 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +202.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 2c | 4,357$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 105 | 29.5%31 W · 74 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 80c | 1,687$1,346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.55 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb77…25f4backed Yes | 16c | 1,634$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3287…7058backed Yes | 2c | 1,229$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e81…78ffbacked Yes | 25c | 1,211$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd4…cf86backed Yes | 13c | 1,004$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1b…f055backed Yes | 9c | 973.6$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6374…9859backed Yes | 12c | 621.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd52e…4fb5backed Yes | 22c | 535.45$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…824ebacked Yes | 16c | 533.79$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3265…6e94backed Yes | 10c | 403.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 75c | 400$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.26 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 5c | 397.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…47a8backed Yes | 3c | 333.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 15c | 302.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 4c | 288.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked Yes | 19c | 257.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 4c | 256.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 74c | 241.24$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac5…2a5ebacked Yes | 21c | 236.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…5cc3backed Yes | 18c | 231.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8d…cf69backed Yes | 18c | 225.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 8c | 212.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 9c | 191.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa01a…1af5backed Yes | 23c | 189.81$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed Yes | 13c | 185.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a42…3f93backed Yes | 8c | 181.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b24…de70backed Yes | 10c | 153.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a9…4ca1backed Yes | 22c | 134.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e29…b9b4backed Yes | 23c | 123.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae1…d9e4backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…ebdcbacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xceee…9191backed Yes | 19c | 70.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa59d…373fbacked Yes | 24c | 62.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 23c | 59.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…4652backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29f7…6dabbacked Yes | 24c | 47.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6e…b4bebacked No | 79c | 43.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa1…deebbacked No | 78c | 24.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 79c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?this page
- Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
- Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?Yes won
- Will Justin Bieber have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.