TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2ac5…2a5e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: NFL, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 53 out of 100; worst Commodities at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.39
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+243.5%+$486.95
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37.2%+$18.59
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$39.29
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$300
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$15
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$149.88
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+82.2%+$82.17
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+35.7%+$35.69
All 13 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+269%+$806.95
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$95.8
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+38.9%+$19.44
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bus" during his victory/concession speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+38.9%+$7.78
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Trump release more Epstein files before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$70
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+232.9%+$349.4
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT+75%+$74.97
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-32.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Golf — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+68.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+58.7%+$117.46
Big Game: Coin Tossbacked Heads · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+78.3%+$39.14
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump and Machado share the Nobel Peace Prize?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$53
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+122.2%+$30.56
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$122.22
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthony Joshua win by KO/TKO/DQ?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+32.6%+$32.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Putin by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Drake have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dominican Republic win the 2026 World Baseball Classic?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USC Trojans vs. Clemson Tigers (W)backed Clemson Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.