TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Big Game: Coin Toss

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Headsof Heads, Tails
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$584,797
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$619,636

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $584,797 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 613 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x03e8…1697backed Heads50c213,674$106,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106,837.06650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Tails50c125,826$62,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,787.3553253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e14…ba2bbacked Heads50c20,131$10,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,065.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2410…08f8backed Tails50c20,092$10,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,045.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe337…6ce0backed Heads50c20,032$10,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,015.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Tails50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5569…ef38backed Tails50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Tails50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0001566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+39.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0dc6…9889backed Tails50c16,000$8,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,016922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-60.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Tails50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Tails50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-45.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb80…403fbacked Tails0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2333…5a61backed Tails0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Heads50c10,000$5,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,9903961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6dce…2c93backed Heads50c9,481$4,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,731.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa569…08dfbacked Heads50c8,442$4,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,208.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x413c…1904backed Tails50c8,100$4,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0582142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Tails16c7,278$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.972441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Tails50c7,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50018650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c16…45e9backed Heads50c6,500$3,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,243.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb75…aaf9backed Heads50c5,194$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,594.011942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Tails50c5,027$2,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,513.371553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Tails50c5,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50025137.5%94 W · 157 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-22.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Tails50c4,126$2,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,059.65475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed Tails50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0009444.7%42 W · 52 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7deb…2682backed Tails50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe84c…c193backed Tails50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Heads50c2,994$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.015248.1%25 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0072…3d75backed Tails50c2,977$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Tails50c2,838$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.993455.9%19 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc4…99adbacked Tails50c2,400$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick26cpaid+33.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked Tails50c2,100$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.651637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Tails1c2,050$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.55955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+36.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f59…1866backed Tails50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-54.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x066e…ceb2backed Heads50c2,000$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9981618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-67.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Tails50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3d67…5f94backed Heads50c1,904$954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd596…befbbacked Tails50c1,901$951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ef9…0a67backed Heads50c1,851$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Heads50c1,518$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.1159453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x069e…ee95backed Tails50c1,286$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Tails50c1,231$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.4754451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3491…5909backed Heads50c1,100$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.021250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6dd5…11bbbacked Heads50c1,000$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b88…cccbbacked Tails50c1,000$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcba6…e258backed Heads50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x227d…5dbdbacked Tails50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70cf…f6cebacked Heads50c998$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-33.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fae…b67fbacked Heads50c997.49$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$497.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ce…5975backed Heads50c868.26$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e0…b25cbacked Tails50c805.94$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf50d…7ba8backed Tails4c750.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.57728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick7cpaid+216%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7f4…5e6bbacked Tails50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3502330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-49.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0x7cb0…51d5backed Heads50c663.49$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.08580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+97.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x524a…afd3backed Tails50c636$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03be…75a5backed Tails50c616$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe02c…5d08backed Tails50c592$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2962343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-21.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd2f…7e70backed Tails50c577.14$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.572035%7 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Heads50c526.77$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.861154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Tails49c508.28$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.465550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Tails4c501.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.81837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd9…d115backed Tails50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x019e…af1dbacked Tails50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505343.4%23 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc87e…3616backed Tails39c499.95$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.651118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Tails50c499.95$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.4841540.2%167 W · 248 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce3…068ebacked Tails50c499.76$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09bf…b9d6backed Heads50c499$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked Heads51c492.28$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.1213024.6%32 W · 98 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd607…6ddcbacked Tails5c483.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.65728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick7cpaid+216%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae2b…90eabacked Heads50c478.84$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.941428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-43.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e6…eebabacked Tails50c472.89$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.520%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc6…a83dbacked Tails50c469.88$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd73…3cc4backed Tails50c467.15$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.812657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5199…aa1dbacked Tails50c465.06$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf007…10b4backed Tails50c444$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Tails10c442.21$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.35119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-85.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6526…9bacbacked Tails50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Tails50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2007052.9%37 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x051f…66b0backed Heads50c399.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.21020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-65.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd934…b664backed Heads50c399.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.2650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0e…407abacked Heads50c399.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.21020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-59.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8de5…2b04backed Heads50c399.2$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.21560%9 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6c9…aeeabacked Heads50c399$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ab7…05adbacked Heads50c397$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x565a…7fb5backed Heads50c384.83$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6977…80a4backed Heads50c379$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1d…bd8cbacked Heads50c371$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb825…4bcebacked Tails50c366.19$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb875…afccbacked Tails50c362.78$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6a1…2437backed Tails50c359.97$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x771b…d522backed Heads50c359.28$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.28425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-50.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e95…6963backed Tails50c358.93$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x712b…2ce2backed Heads50c357.98$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6274…783abacked Tails50c357.58$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d13…a46ebacked Tails50c356.74$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…21d3backed Tails50c356.23$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82f6…35a9backed Tails50c356.17$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5cf3…de58backed Tails50c356.13$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x233b…23dabacked Tails50c356$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e1…b729backed Tails50c355.52$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.