Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bus" during his victory/concession speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e5a32b399817ddf341692d533020cd3a727e582eb3454f1f92083518249e808
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,737
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,737 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 19c | 633.26$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.66 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 61c | 619.01$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.01 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa47b…a496backed Yes | 71c | 534.16$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba4…f8c2backed Yes | 80c | 454.66$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.23 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 48cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 18c | 431.57$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.51 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 16c | 420.56$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.61 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 45c | 408.9$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.01 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…58dbbacked No | 36c | 395$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4220…b0fdbacked No | 26c | 386.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…044bbacked Yes | 63c | 315$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa437…571abacked Yes | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c49…7f40backed No | 43c | 232.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 38c | 203.35$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 25c | 192.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…b95dbacked No | 26c | 170.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 27c | 150.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe052…3108backed No | 22c | 149.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 134.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 19c | 107.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…aed7backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…b35bbacked Yes | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 75c | 71.25$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4428…aa82backed Yes | 68c | 70.69$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 28c | 62.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…de34backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 43c | 46.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 25c | 46.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x405f…45cebacked Yes | 78c | 44.22$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 39c | 37.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x765e…03bebacked Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…b3aebacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…f940backed Yes | 68c | 32.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac5…2a5ebacked Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680f…3595backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7d…bf72backed Yes | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…9281backed Yes | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0511…3069backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7854…90a5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 79c | 19.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bus" during his victory/concession speech?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Anti-semitic" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Cuomo" 2+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Grocery" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Halal" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Jew" or "Jewish" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Rent" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.