Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Grocery" during his victory/concession speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcea5f79ccd907f24e4df5069d46ca91e8f3c3f3183785cec14b7436b93f8fff8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 1c | 1,305$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed No | 14c | 800$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…dcfebacked No | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 36cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8219…f1fabacked No | 26c | 445.27$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.66 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 30c | 420$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed No | 26c | 420$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 24c | 364.1$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.1 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 77c | 336$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 35c | 297.07$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.32 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f7d…5769backed No | 26c | 293.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 50c | 222$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked Yes | 72c | 217.61$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 23c | 217.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 29c | 210$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa47b…a496backed Yes | 47c | 198.44$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…48c4backed Yes | 65c | 180$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +207.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 22c | 168.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Yes | 63c | 158$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.46 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -29%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 75c | 122.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d06…9aefbacked Yes | 65c | 113.26$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea2f…a8efbacked No | 30c | 102.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 47c | 100.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6428…bc3cbacked Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.32 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 18c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054d…75adbacked No | 23c | 83.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…b4e0backed No | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed No | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17bd…7afcbacked Yes | 78c | 57.69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7896…047dbacked Yes | 77c | 52.91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2907…c1eebacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 48.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…42ebbacked No | 37c | 42.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…b3aebacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…835abacked Yes | 67c | 41.79$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…1a4dbacked Yes | 77c | 41.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 66c | 37.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b6…d35fbacked Yes | 75c | 33.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…89eabacked No | 31c | 32.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 63c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fce…b35bbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…2ba8backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ef…66bcbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…78f9backed Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Grocery" during his victory/concession speech?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Anti-semitic" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bus" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Cuomo" 2+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Halal" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Jew" or "Jewish" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Rent" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.