Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Jew" or "Jewish" during his victory/concession speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe15ee3af36de02b2083ebb39dabbdfd0fec25f069e01804a962c20ddfb542596
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…58dbbacked No | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdf…d7a2backed Yes | 41c | 435$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.89 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd352…4ad6backed No | 53c | 422.02$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.07 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 46c | 396.39$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.2 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 38c | 297.41$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.51 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 38c | 297.4$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…8f03backed No | 63c | 293$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…04aabacked Yes | 40c | 252.6$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…4a13backed Yes | 50c | 240$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57f3…748cbacked Yes | 49c | 226.48$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…bff4backed Yes | 40c | 188.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…a584backed No | 64c | 187.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 36c | 180$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.6 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 49c | 178.98$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c49…7f40backed No | 64c | 155.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…cfe2backed Yes | 47c | 148$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +157.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 37c | 135.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.24 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9515…10d7backed Yes | 38c | 131.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 59c | 130.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 56c | 124.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.55 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 68c | 124.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x444c…a741backed Yes | 37c | 119.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 62c | 117.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.18 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6778…226abacked Yes | 36c | 113.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.51 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +3.9wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +120.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 64c | 113.18$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 62c | 99.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7345…87cfbacked Yes | 39c | 88.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x840f…41d2backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…444bbacked Yes | 46c | 65.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6942…039abacked Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…1a4dbacked Yes | 46c | 65.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.77 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 40c | 63.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.64 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 51c | 58.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 22%9 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 42c | 57.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…b3aebacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed7…7970backed Yes | 37c | 54.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe898…769fbacked No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.99 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed No | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 58c | 47.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…4a7fbacked Yes | 46c | 44.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 32c | 44.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3be2…e7a0backed Yes | 46c | 43.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae2a…d0a0backed No | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 62c | 39.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…51afbacked No | 66c | 30.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x478d…98edbacked No | 64c | 30.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd8…0b62backed No | 67c | 29.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96e…e5b5backed Yes | 77c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Jew" or "Jewish" during his victory/concession speech?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Anti-semitic" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bus" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Cuomo" 2+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Grocery" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Halal" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Rent" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.