TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Zohran Mamdani say "Jew" or "Jewish" during his victory/concession speech?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,340 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x22e6…409fbacked No1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-75.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32be…58dbbacked No25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12580%0 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb34…2423backed Yes75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1252744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-26.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7bdf…d7a2backed Yes41c435$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.891540%6 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed No53c422.02$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.071631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes46c396.39$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.256733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes38c297.41$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.5132029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x072a…3e85backed Yes38c297.4$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.52236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf385…8f03backed No63c293$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd538…04aabacked Yes40c252.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.6757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4a2…4a13backed Yes50c240$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57f3…748cbacked Yes49c226.48$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.18250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad46…65a7backed No50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No62c200$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12469634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1464…bff4backed Yes40c188.74$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+147.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8866…a584backed No64c187.16$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked Yes36c180$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.68355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x644b…2145backed No49c178.98$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.11435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c49…7f40backed No64c155.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x473e…cfe2backed Yes47c148$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.182100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+157.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x355e…a038backed Yes37c135.81$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.248250%41 W · 41 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9515…10d7backed Yes38c131.9$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.9633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked No59c130.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.987739%30 W · 47 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c67…bb39backed No56c124.99$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.552433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed No68c124.73$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.6312649.2%62 W · 64 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+4.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x444c…a741backed Yes37c119.16$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed No62c117.23$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.187441.9%31 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes36c113.51$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.511866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+120.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No64c113.18$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.518547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7860…07a8backed Yes41c100$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591650%8 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a5d…9ea3backed No64c100$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642626.9%7 W · 19 L-4.8wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-33.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No62c99.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.996256.5%35 W · 27 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7345…87cfbacked Yes39c88.11$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.827100%7 W · 0 L+3.1wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+97.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x840f…41d2backed Yes45c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x451a…444bbacked Yes46c65.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.832100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+83.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6942…039abacked Yes38c65.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.79475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+35.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa13b…1a4dbacked Yes46c65.77$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.77955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+44.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes40c63.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.6499629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No51c58.48$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304122%9 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes42c57.89$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.831840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89d3…b3aebacked Yes36c55.56$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.56771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick45cpaid+43.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ed7…7970backed Yes37c54.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe898…769fbacked No63c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.52520%5 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-58.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes32c49.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.996346%29 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+25.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed No63c47.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No58c47.24$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.43551.4%18 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa844…4a7fbacked Yes46c44.66$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+88.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No32c44.54$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.288817%15 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3be2…e7a0backed Yes46c43.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.466100%6 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+79.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xae2a…d0a0backed No58c43.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes34c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.42839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f1f…0b36backed Yes50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No62c39.16$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.425853.4%31 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e24…51afbacked No66c30.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.17666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x478d…98edbacked No64c30.12$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.63417.6%6 W · 28 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325a…dbb4backed No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-36.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dd8…0b62backed No67c29.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid+4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa96e…e5b5backed Yes77c26.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-35.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4058…8b1cbacked No62c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.42231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick45cpaid-48.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.