Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during his victory/concession speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23921f1f4b90c517f95a70892f118568acb0504322ae310ffeecc3ddfb192623
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 16c | 444.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.23 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 17c | 436$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 37c | 308.41$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.66 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 22c | 266.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.56 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 77c | 249.98$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 26c | 249.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1277…13d8backed Yes | 65c | 175$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.52 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdf…d7a2backed Yes | 71c | 165.22$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 31c | 161.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…04aabacked Yes | 69c | 144.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.29 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed No | 33c | 135.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 22c | 91.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…4d4ebacked No | 22c | 91.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c49…7f40backed No | 23c | 87.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 23c | 81.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…a584backed Yes | 60c | 80.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…dc7bbacked No | 36c | 60.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…04d3backed Yes | 73c | 54.71$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e06…d668backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6298…b860backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 62c | 38.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6942…039abacked Yes | 67c | 37.34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4757…63cbbacked Yes | 73c | 34.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…b3aebacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…ea82backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd749…bf72backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…18febacked Yes | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7f…a52cbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during his victory/concession speech?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Anti-semitic" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bus" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Cuomo" 2+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Grocery" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Halal" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Jew" or "Jewish" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Rent" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.