Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concession speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x308eb1fa70e2b599ff1f682887ad242d475429a6c1ff95264a04c9f45c44dcce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,875
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked No | 1c | 2,174$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked No | 36c | 552.03$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.7wins | -0.25per pick | 32cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa183…a3d8backed Yes | 65c | 523.38$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked Yes | 69c | 500$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…8f03backed No | 37c | 425.88$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…bfb9backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbde…a050backed No | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…a584backed Yes | 59c | 335.04$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.95 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 39c | 290.12$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 40c | 270.96$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 37c | 257.66$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.22 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 37c | 242.19$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9515…10d7backed Yes | 63c | 238.13$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c08…7307backed No | 39c | 208.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 47c | 162.47$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ab…144dbacked Yes | 62c | 160.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed No | 26c | 144.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed No | 34c | 143.86$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 32c | 122.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1277…13d8backed Yes | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 11c | 112.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…6a47backed Yes | 60c | 108$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…51afbacked Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe052…3108backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 64c | 99.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e7…9281backed No | 27c | 96.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 47cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 60c | 86.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 64c | 83.33$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 81.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…a73ebacked No | 50c | 79.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d9…9977backed Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 34c | 76.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 175 | 44.6%78 W · 97 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe488…f2c0backed Yes | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 62c | 73.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…89c2backed Yes | 52c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6441…139ebacked No | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…835ebacked Yes | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed No | 47c | 52.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…5c6abacked Yes | 60c | 50.33$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e06…d668backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…dc7bbacked No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70eb…635abacked No | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e2…126bbacked Yes | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +180.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked Yes | 77c | 44.21$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa844…4a7fbacked Yes | 62c | 44.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…31a4backed Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 38c | 40.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 39c | 39.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…1491backed No | 33c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed No | 33c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae9…7473backed Yes | 58c | 34.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3be2…e7a0backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…c38fbacked No | 36c | 32.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…aec1backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e23…cf5bbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 42c | 26.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3de…ba91backed Yes | 54c | 25.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa8…75d0backed Yes | 62c | 25.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…affcbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…924fbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…143bbacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…a7e0backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concession speech?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Anti-semitic" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bus" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Cuomo" 2+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Grocery" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Halal" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Jew" or "Jewish" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Rent" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.