Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" during his victory/concession speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9617e34d4a2c0ade90ae00837a4e39dc43341830703c6bf746073ade0f0d2360
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,078
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked No | 1c | 20,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…58dbbacked No | 33c | 1,687$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 27c | 736.93$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.67 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…4cc4backed Yes | 72c | 507.24$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.56 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 26c | 371$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 26c | 332.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37c…0d90backed Yes | 76c | 288$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed No | 24c | 251.82$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 24c | 234.66$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.97 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 27c | 227.66$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…fafbbacked Yes | 72c | 222.75$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 71c | 203.47$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.49 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 27c | 199.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 27c | 194.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb71f…faa0backed No | 27c | 184.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 25c | 167$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…aec1backed Yes | 73c | 150.68$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.68 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59b3…1d98backed Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +85%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…de34backed Yes | 68c | 150$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7069…9cb3backed Yes | 72c | 142.32$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4220…b0fdbacked Yes | 72c | 138.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…aed7backed Yes | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…b95dbacked No | 30c | 135.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6298…b860backed Yes | 74c | 134.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed Yes | 75c | 134.59$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…04aabacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 27c | 130$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 74c | 114.99$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 47 | 31.9%15 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7896…047dbacked Yes | 74c | 108.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x646c…3210backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 33c | 99.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 84.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…a496backed Yes | 71c | 80.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 26c | 75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 72c | 74.76$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.92 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…efbcbacked No | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7918…f39fbacked No | 28c | 72.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e39…d2f1backed Yes | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 29c | 69.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae9…7473backed Yes | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba72…143bbacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ca…dc7bbacked No | 26c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed No | 26c | 54.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…444bbacked Yes | 67c | 51.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…1a4dbacked Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4c…c1ddbacked Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ea…a113backed Yes | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…51afbacked No | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e35…65dabacked Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…a584backed No | 54c | 36.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…bca3backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380a…4741backed Yes | 66c | 30.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…14b4backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +71.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 42c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8260…5bdebacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…388dbacked Yes | 72c | 27.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…e5e7backed Yes | 75c | 26.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…5be6backed Yes | 75c | 21.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…4fdfbacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…9070backed Yes | 72c | 20.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b6…d35fbacked Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6c34backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f5…6e89backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…7ff9backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e06…d668backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 68c | 18.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…a695backed Yes | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…845dbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" during his victory/concession speech?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Anti-semitic" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bus" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Cuomo" 2+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Grocery" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Halal" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Jew" or "Jewish" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Rent" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.