Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b047d65e1cc5545c4a7636ff6ff0965b639d689b46a94dd94ad8b35219603f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,347
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,347 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ce4…fbd1backed Yes | 58c | 941.01$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 37c | 566.59$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.43 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 34c | 520.72$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.88 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 32c | 482.89$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.64 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…81dbbacked Yes | 66c | 454.72$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.22per pick | 68cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x681e…b26bbacked Yes | 68c | 341.99$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked No | 28c | 341.29$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.73 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed No | 32c | 340.4$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.96 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b4…95b1backed Yes | 62c | 299.99$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 29c | 274$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.88 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce38…a0dabacked Yes | 72c | 240.33$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…8f03backed No | 41c | 222$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9515…10d7backed Yes | 62c | 214.61$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…65a7backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 38c | 182.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.51 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6298…b860backed Yes | 63c | 157.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfb…3a75backed No | 30c | 156.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942b…e25ebacked No | 43c | 146.66$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 40c | 141.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.92 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 37c | 140$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…5c15backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 32c | 114.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 31c | 113.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…f2bdbacked No | 30c | 101.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +234%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c41…42ebbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…07a8backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…d65bbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d06…9aefbacked No | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 36c | 93.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe052…3108backed No | 29c | 88$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…9266backed Yes | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked No | 38c | 77.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3e08…d84cbacked Yes | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e06…d668backed Yes | 63c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 71c | 71.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf65d…e573backed No | 38c | 69.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed No | 47c | 61.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7896…047dbacked Yes | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…26dfbacked No | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ae…b9a0backed Yes | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 38c | 40.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce60…6705backed No | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x131a…73f9backed Yes | 66c | 39.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6441…139ebacked Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.8wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…21cfbacked Yes | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…1c86backed Yes | 58c | 34.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 32.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Yes | 37c | 31.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f7…0de5backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 57cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed76…d1cebacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…e126backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e7…6c7abacked Yes | 56c | 26.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 44c | 26.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…4b77backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…42fbbacked No | 44c | 25.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…8633backed Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…696bbacked Yes | 67c | 23.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…4fcbbacked Yes | 68c | 23.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f4…e02fbacked Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…2670backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23d0…58e4backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 74c | 14.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Anti-semitic" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bus" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Cuomo" 2+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Grocery" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Halal" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Jew" or "Jewish" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Rent" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.