Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65d4079655fb7a8465889181129a85753c849809c524003fa5e535d8f877757f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x22e6…409fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe6…e374backed Yes | 2c | 1,531$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 7c | 1,142$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.94 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 40c | 416.28$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.08 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…2145backed No | 33c | 351.28$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdf…d7a2backed Yes | 69c | 298.25$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.84 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4220…b0fdbacked No | 49c | 204.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1277…13d8backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.63 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 67c | 199.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 39c | 199.98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 11c | 168.67$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 65c | 132.74$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2853…3482backed No | 31c | 129.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.06 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +7.0wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 31c | 123.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.47 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 38c | 121.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 42c | 117.81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.84 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…5003backed Yes | 53c | 111.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…8852backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.99 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…5c15backed Yes | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9c…ad87backed Yes | 42c | 96.72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe488…f2c0backed Yes | 63c | 78.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +72%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce38…a0dabacked Yes | 73c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…55b9backed Yes | 63c | 75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed No | 51c | 59.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4757…63cbbacked Yes | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf710…edc9backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7f…a00cbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +129.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…efbcbacked Yes | 76c | 46.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x765e…03bebacked Yes | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c6…7ff9backed Yes | 55c | 36.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8c…3319backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed No | 40c | 33.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…2841backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed38…c77fbacked Yes | 53c | 31.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 40c | 30.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x680f…3595backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 67c | 28.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee81…ef68backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…a8c1backed Yes | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…ed15backed Yes | 79c | 27.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0c…0c51backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac5…2a5ebacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed No | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Anti-semitic" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bus" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Cuomo" 2+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Grocery" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Halal" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Jew" or "Jewish" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Rent" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.