Us Politics · resolved market
Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc54be2dc6f3190ebb5f9ab5ec5c0ebec039092843d179697c23a1216acdd64e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,599
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,599 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 1c | 4,787$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…ae74backed Yes | 51c | 327.09$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.93 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +271%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 47c | 281.77$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.83 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed No | 57c | 264.62$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.67 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed Yes | 44c | 239.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.65 | 320 | 29.1%93 W · 227 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x072a…3e85backed Yes | 44c | 235.06$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.43 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 48c | 215$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Yes | 49c | 202.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…928abacked Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4220…b0fdbacked No | 54c | 183.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7345…87cfbacked Yes | 67c | 148.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +97.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed Yes | 42c | 144.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8a…5af6backed No | 37c | 130$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6428…bc3cbacked Yes | 45c | 124.99$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 33c | 116.06$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.28 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbea6…aed7backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5d…9ea3backed No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked No | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 50c | 91.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb34…2423backed Yes | 43c | 75.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…fb6abacked No | 78c | 71.52$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 61cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…55b9backed Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed No | 59c | 68.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed No | 57c | 61.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…dd78backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…c75fbacked No | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b7…3bd1backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840f…41d2backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95b6…d35fbacked Yes | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a1…f3f7backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +95.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…1ed4backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +161.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…7abbbacked Yes | 42c | 47.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 59c | 47$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 66c | 43.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…1c86backed Yes | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked No | 78c | 40.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…8b1cbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6298…b860backed Yes | 50c | 39.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb10…4f39backed Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked No | 52c | 38.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 59c | 32.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8866…a584backed No | 66c | 30.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8652…3ce4backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…dbb4backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaaa…335bbacked No | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…b3aebacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 45cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa13b…1a4dbacked Yes | 43c | 28.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c39…096bbacked Yes | 41c | 26.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…db3cbacked Yes | 43c | 25.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 78c | 21.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0511…3069backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 126 | 49.2%62 W · 64 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…a73ebacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Socialist" or "Socialism" during his victory/concession speech?this page
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Anti-semitic" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Bus" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Cuomo" 2+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Fascism" or "Fascist" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Grocery" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Halal" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Immigrant" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Jew" or "Jewish" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 5+ times during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Muslim" or "Islam" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Next Mayor" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Rent" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Subway" during his victory/concession speech?No won
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "Trump" during his victory/concession speech?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.