TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9772…a7e0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
128
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT6336.5%23 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 63 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.38
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+159.7%+$18.45
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.56
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.45
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+146.4%+$29.71
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+178.4%+$60.3
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.2
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+76.8%+$31.07
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.8
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$23
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+351.6%+$66.18
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.87
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$11.25
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.2
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.67
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+214.1%+$248.8
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$136Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$136.34
Showing 25 of 63 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT3145.2%14 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 31 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump attend NATO Summit?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.7
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.8
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$22
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.5
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$54.75
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.87
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+56.6%+$28.73
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.7
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.2
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+189.1%+$89.3
Houthi strike on Israel by March 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.9
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.8
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+151.5%+$45.46
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+281.2%+$413.36
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+81.8%+$45
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+203.7%+$142.57
US strikes Iran by March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+233.3%+$119
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+233.3%+$46.67
Showing 25 of 31 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+46.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick36cpaid-78.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+59.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zuffa Boxing 2: Bohachuk vs. Butaev (Middleweight, Main)backed Bohachuk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+51.5%+$6.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will DeepSeek’s DeepSeek Chat V3.1 win the Alpha Arena Season 1.5 competition?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$10.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will “The Witcher: Season 4” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 11 2025)backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$10.6
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.