Middle East · resolved market
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7097dfcbea6a2dccaf03873ecff1f055609ab4186932d4e983f3aa15a7fd5569
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $440,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $369,249
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $440,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 514 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 75c | 14,492$10,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,694.77 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x392d…371cbacked Yes | 25c | 9,569$2,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,391.81 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc90d…c9d2backed Yes | 31c | 9,200$2,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,852 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes | 28c | 8,900$2,456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,456 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 33c | 6,771$2,268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,267.52 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 18c | 6,700$1,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,205.95 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 17c | 6,383$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.18 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 66c | 4,992$3,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.85 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d3…fcacbacked Yes | 29c | 4,594$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 23c | 4,470$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 142 | 27.5%39 W · 103 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 24c | 4,272$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.8 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 26c | 3,846$1,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.36 | 140 | 36.4%51 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4823…9448backed Yes | 26c | 3,518$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.24 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed Yes | 29c | 3,409$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x111e…f237backed Yes | 32c | 2,935$949 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$948.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 66c | 2,914$1,923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.79 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4a…2184backed Yes | 9c | 2,898$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.64 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbc…9ed9backed Yes | 15c | 2,897$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.19 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…e708backed Yes | 17c | 2,643$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.58 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 68c | 2,603$1,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.25 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed Yes | 25c | 2,320$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,281$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c6…db73backed No | 70c | 2,229$1,557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.93 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b81…98e1backed Yes | 66c | 2,228$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac36…5a18backed Yes | 23c | 2,189$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 10c | 2,180$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.08 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 64c | 2,121$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765.48 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…642cbacked Yes | 30c | 2,120$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9aa…bb40backed Yes | 24c | 2,076$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.12 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…4affbacked No | 70c | 2,000$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…8c83backed Yes | 28c | 1,996$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b81…9204backed Yes | 28c | 1,912$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 1,908$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.55 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,904$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.33 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5810…9de6backed Yes | 28c | 1,863$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,850$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.5 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…39c7backed Yes | 28c | 1,850$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…bb56backed Yes | 28c | 1,844$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd227…0dfbbacked Yes | 28c | 1,844$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…384ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,841$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.58 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc47…a1eabacked Yes | 28c | 1,817$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa591…9079backed No | 64c | 1,765$1,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.93 | 69 | 65.2%45 W · 24 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 2c | 1,761$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 62 | 19.4%12 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 64c | 1,743$1,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.81 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20ab…d707backed Yes | 17c | 1,728$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…8cd5backed Yes | 29c | 1,605$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd1…a4a3backed Yes | 26c | 1,538$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 22c | 1,532$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.04 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | +9.1wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…4648backed Yes | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 23c | 1,496$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.31 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 32c | 1,407$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.62 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 71c | 1,403$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.62 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0c…baf0backed Yes | 25c | 1,403$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.68 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…0179backed Yes | 42c | 1,376$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc722…1334backed Yes | 29c | 1,340$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.2 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 30c | 1,332$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.67 | 89 | 29.2%26 W · 63 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…e2c4backed Yes | 22c | 1,331$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,307$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.04 | 177 | 55.4%98 W · 79 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9e…8a70backed Yes | 28c | 1,255$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.78 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c59…9c2bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,241$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 21c | 1,232$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.95 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed No | 66c | 1,210$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.26 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a23…d348backed Yes | 22c | 1,200$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +299.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b3…6911backed No | 70c | 1,197$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc7…7349backed Yes | 30c | 1,170$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 27c | 1,100$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +10.4wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x72de…5a8cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,093$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf0…83e3backed Yes | 27c | 1,046$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…21f4backed No | 69c | 1,040$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.8 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 20c | 1,030$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.1 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | +16.6wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…a84abacked Yes | 25c | 1,000$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 32c | 1,000$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316 | 177 | 37.3%66 W · 111 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 22c | 945.69$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c83…cf0abacked Yes | 27c | 919.26$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.79 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e8…8676backed Yes | 9c | 888.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Yes | 29c | 880.5$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.35 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ff…0a07backed Yes | 2c | 876.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 65c | 872.97$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.08 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…3319backed No | 69c | 867.83$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.03 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…2949backed No | 71c | 859.15$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.15 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e5…f012backed Yes | 12c | 828.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e0…2c3bbacked Yes | 27c | 800$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb42c…60f1backed Yes | 23c | 800$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a5…2a52backed Yes | 42c | 789.87$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.23 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 28c | 786.52$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.76 | 70 | 12.9%9 W · 61 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f59…3637backed Yes | 24c | 784.89$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.31 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…e8a8backed Yes | 26c | 774.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 750$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 12c | 750$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.83 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 19c | 750$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.44 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb34c…8773backed Yes | 28c | 742.51$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 39cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…da13backed No | 75c | 709.33$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 68c | 700$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 281 | 26.3%74 W · 207 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x881f…ea6ebacked No | 74c | 699.99$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 32c | 691.64$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.06 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked Yes | 24c | 680$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Yes | 36c | 679.99$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.53 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 32c | 613.1$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.19 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…bb90backed Yes | 27c | 600$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.