Us Politics · resolved market
U.S. Congress member out over Epstein files by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa10e65b4e80f3f121b8da1eafbfa9937f3f694e9a4448b10052a88e405b1287b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,890$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab9…aff7backed Yes | 31c | 870.13$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 71c | 547.72$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.45 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 76c | 281.7$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 279.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e5…a4b4backed Yes | 9c | 234.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 13c | 177.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 7cpaid | +659%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 54c | 153.12$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.92 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c9…6162backed Yes | 15c | 143.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed Yes | 13c | 132$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357e…2a0cbacked No | 76c | 125.03$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +4.0wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…aed0backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9355backed Yes | 23c | 106.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad7b…63dabacked No | 73c | 105.32$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…a7e0backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a86…927ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…26f5backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec85…8ba8backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 88.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d71…87d5backed Yes | 66c | 79.89$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aef…9efebacked Yes | 16c | 79.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x842c…1fd3backed Yes | 26c | 65.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5527…4e68backed Yes | 25c | 63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cff…6c34backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…a516backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 35c | 31.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84b0…5bc8backed No | 76c | 29.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed86…092ebacked No | 76c | 14.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.