Venezuela · resolved market
U.S. forces seize another oil ship by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd5aecc656e08af710cc7c2654dbd70a908374dc5caf392353ff7b11889a340f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,254
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5554…1eeebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed No | 1c | 2,647$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…eb6dbacked No | 64c | 1,568$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.77 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.33per pick | 45cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 17cpaid | +164%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc589…c822backed No | 31c | 645.27$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 3c | 632.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 13c | 559.92$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…a1a1backed No | 54c | 551.13$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes | 69c | 431.82$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.98 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4978…8b2cbacked No | 28c | 363.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7598…b483backed Yes | 60c | 344.13$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c5…521dbacked No | 47c | 319.8$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed No | 37c | 245.74$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ae…9d2bbacked No | 40c | 210.98$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 57c | 209.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.59 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…0998backed Yes | 75c | 206.42$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 65c | 206.14$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed Yes | 62c | 177.79$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…b348backed No | 49c | 173.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 21c | 173.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 61c | 166.05$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 67 | 71.6%48 W · 19 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 72c | 165.32$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…8edebacked No | 27c | 163.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.83 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 67c | 153.08$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 68c | 146.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd7…c7e1backed Yes | 63c | 140.18$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…67dbbacked No | 36c | 132.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 24c | 124.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 123.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 35c | 122.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.4 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 62c | 108.82$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.75 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…1cefbacked No | 46c | 103.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bef…f8c4backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbafc…bac3backed No | 53c | 94.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed No | 44c | 88.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 26c | 83.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe940…0fc4backed Yes | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 58c | 71.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9772…a7e0backed Yes | 39c | 69.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9497…556fbacked No | 31c | 65.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ffd…d5a8backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 47c | 51.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f12…4e57backed Yes | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 27c | 50.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2feb…6366backed Yes | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4864…0933backed No | 35c | 48.68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x083f…a55fbacked No | 31c | 48.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +47%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x728f…d43ebacked No | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes | 73c | 39.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d0…28ddbacked No | 32c | 39.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…59f7backed Yes | 52c | 38.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d3…1bf1backed No | 39c | 38.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb50b…d9ecbacked Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed No | 36c | 30.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4276…84e9backed No | 40c | 30.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 59c | 29.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…4dc1backed Yes | 69c | 28.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 44c | 25.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +25%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db9…4100backed Yes | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bda…6652backed Yes | 68c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 58c | 21.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be1…68f3backed Yes | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…2c2fbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf960…ba50backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67b9…3543backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…4d2fbacked Yes | 73c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee4…aaadbacked Yes | 75c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes | 71c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- U.S. forces seize another oil ship by January 31, 2026?this page
- U.S. forces seize another oil ship by January 24, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.