TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9bbe…91d6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
303
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Boxing, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Boxing at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT22718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 227 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+460.6%+$142.78
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.95
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+869.7%+$121.76
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.5
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+244.8%+$61.19
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 15 to August 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$28
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$55.5
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$151
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+121%+$88.36
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$101.8
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.26
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$93.73
Showing 25 of 227 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST352.9%1 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-94.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
L.A. U-Haul attack perp charged with terrorism?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12.43
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$27.62
Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$24.6
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$34.47
Will Trump meet with Reza Pahlavi by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$29.44
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70.3
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.17
Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$19.05
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$24.4
Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$27
Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$17.5
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$14.79
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$16.5
Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$21.3
Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will the US strike Syria next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$13.9
Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$186.41
Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$80.81
Khamenei public appearance by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$32
Odds of Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31 over 50% by January 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$72.67
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-95.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Lê Hoài Trung be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.44
Will Lương Tam Quang be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.14
Will Nguyễn Hòa Bình be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Phạm Minh Chính be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Phạm Thị Thanh Trà be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.83
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.06
Will Lương Cường be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.11
Will Phan Văn Giang be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.53
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$976Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+33%+$322.43
Will Trần Thanh Mẫn be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$442Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$442.25
Will Trần Cẩm Tú be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.9
Will Phạm Minh Chính be the next President of Vietnam?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will PVV be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Denk be part of the next Government of the Netherlands?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$10.14
Will Yoshihiko Noda be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$11.13
Will Shinjirō Koizumi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$10.87
Will Juan Carlos Hidalgo Bogantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$141.48
Will Álvaro Roberto Ramos Chaves win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$16.25
Will Claudia Vanessa Dobles Camargo win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$31.57
Will Andrés Ariel Robles Barrantes win the 2026 Costa Rican presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$11.12
Will Tran Cam Tu be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$566Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$566.42
Will Luong Cuong be elected General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$615Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$614.92
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+233.3%+$38.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.