TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$503,450
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$266,396

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $503,450 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8ea…d3f7backed Yes0c55,958$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e75…d599backed Yes0c35,356$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13240%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes0c34,586$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5917917.9%32 W · 147 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-40%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes0c16,633$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6836113.3%48 W · 313 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c14,626$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.261,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes1c11,374$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.9232615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes4c11,371$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.3621521.9%47 W · 168 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5084…fb85backed Yes0c11,312$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31100%0 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c9,135$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.861,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes2c8,381$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.551,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes7c7,837$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.7463821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c7,650$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.321,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c6,268$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.031,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes2c5,657$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2775122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes0c5,295$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.093134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes5c5,194$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.953522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes2c5,178$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.531834.4%8 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes1c5,100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2439723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes5c5,052$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.3931624.7%78 W · 238 L-0.6wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes0c4,492$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.62785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes4c4,153$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.129416%15 W · 79 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-36.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes2c4,002$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.275535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe946…b74ebacked Yes0c3,878$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes3c3,504$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4133422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes5c3,251$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.388018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbada…ebb9backed Yes2c3,201$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes2c3,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.625718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes5c2,880$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.7757621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes5c2,746$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.8723019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes6c2,281$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.6288017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes4c2,274$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.577920.3%16 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes3c2,162$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.6551410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes3c2,110$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.763622.2%8 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+111.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes5c2,100$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.925617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes5c2,068$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008219.5%16 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes2c2,061$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7488610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c2,051$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.974916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c17…ab38backed Yes4c2,031$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.66728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-44.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes1c1,663$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8624114.1%34 W · 207 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+17.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes1c1,648$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.851824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes3c1,630$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.522718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes5c1,600$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7532016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes5c1,546$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.1515918.9%30 W · 129 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c1,436$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.862,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes1c1,411$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1912825.8%33 W · 95 L+7.1wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+50.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes1c1,390$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.481,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes2c1,244$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8332917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3367…e5dcbacked Yes5c1,069$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes1c1,040$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.384568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes1c1,022$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3173215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes2c1,010$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0912421.8%27 W · 97 L-0.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8966…3476backed Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11220%0 W · 22 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0650…37e5backed Yes8c999.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801225%3 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes4c999.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351116.3%7 W · 104 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+53.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes2c931.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.151,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes5c927.19$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.312919.4%25 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes2c900$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1612332.5%40 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e78…82a3backed Yes1c891.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.95450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick9cpaid+726.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes4c885.26$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2341610.6%44 W · 372 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes2c822.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.365909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes3c761.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.761066.6%7 W · 99 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes2c754.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6820723.7%49 W · 158 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes5c642.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.276216.1%10 W · 52 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-66.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8ce…6063backed Yes5c610.4$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.313228.1%9 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+49.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes2c601$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.421308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes4c500$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.71557.7%12 W · 143 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes4c476.47$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181015%5 W · 96 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-67.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes7c467.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.59614.6%14 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes2c439.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1711418.4%21 W · 93 L+10.0wins+0.09per pick10cpaid-15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c416$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.476915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes8c393.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.072777.9%22 W · 255 L+0.6wins0.00per pick8cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes5c390.93$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0640719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes3c373.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.432015%48 W · 272 L+1.4wins0.00per pick15cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35af…94bbbacked Yes8c283.71$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.663514.3%5 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes4c250.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.558821.6%19 W · 69 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes7c234.19$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5127647.8%132 W · 144 L+10.1wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes7c219.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1623314.2%33 W · 200 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04fa…1ff3backed Yes11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.795221.2%11 W · 41 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf51…0439backed Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.