Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x469bdef750eb2125725fb083f1500e1e7ee2435e66b93d3de21572d1a553d352

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 23, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $240,171
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $128,154

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,171 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	19,508$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.51	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	2c	9,627$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.81	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	2c	8,579$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.82	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	6,981$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.62	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	6,180$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.27	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	5,419$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.79	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	5,148$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.13	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	4,477$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.09	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	1c	4,308$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.01	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	3,175$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.55	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	4c	3,000$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.25	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,913$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.97	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,505$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.55	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	2,474$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.16	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,350$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.85	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	5c	2,063$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.12	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7bec…b4e2backed Yes	3c	2,005$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.4	34	11.8%4 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-76.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	4c	1,952$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.27	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac6b…a962backed Yes	4c	1,778$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	159	32.7%52 W · 107 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	1,402$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.26	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	1,367$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.07	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	1,323$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x27f6…d1d3backed Yes	2c	1,186$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.18	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	+2.0wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	-4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	1,147$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.68	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	3c	1,066$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.83	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	3c	1,039$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,030$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.34	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes	3c	853.53$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.86	100	8%8 W · 92 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	750$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5754…cefbbacked Yes	4c	725.4$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.54	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.08per pick	27cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	720$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.29	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcde6…040fbacked Yes	5c	693$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.02	55	32.7%18 W · 37 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc7…b583backed Yes	7c	684.28$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.65	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35af…94bbbacked Yes	6c	645.25$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.41	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	3c	525.64$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.77	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	3c	513.68$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.17	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04f7…00f0backed Yes	3c	500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.4	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	6c	499.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	2c	499.4$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	4c	429.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.21	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9277…c2d7backed Yes	6c	413.97$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.84	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes	5c	410.54$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	161	24.2%39 W · 122 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	3c	401.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.38	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes	5c	399.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	7.5%3 W · 37 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd398…a865backed Yes	5c	390.65$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	116	25.9%30 W · 86 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	5c	341$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.43	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	5c	299.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	74	10.8%8 W · 66 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x821a…cc63backed Yes	6c	299.94$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.02	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	31cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfea2…c61cbacked Yes	5c	242.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04fa…1ff3backed Yes	6c	230$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x814f…aeecbacked Yes	5c	221.41$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	58	19%11 W · 47 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c36…0f09backed Yes	7c	211.7$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+1.8wins	+0.06per pick	33cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f5…d8a1backed Yes	7c	204.74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.39	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6206…cf4cbacked Yes	8c	200.04$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	42	35.7%15 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81a4…a1b4backed Yes	6c	186.78$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f40…9bccbacked Yes	6c	182.59$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.41	30	40%12 W · 18 L	+2.6wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event