Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x499a2b58ec5bf4e81a419db928fd2a1f55f968f8e49ff79fa469d10d0d23b559

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $307,277
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $142,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,277 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	0c	41,827$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.84	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	16,250$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.36	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	16,156$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.47	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	15,589$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.02	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	11,733$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.22	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4524…9ac9backed Yes	0c	10,630$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	0c	9,850$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	0c	9,238$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.83	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	8,202$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.61	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	1c	7,787$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.24	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	0c	6,751$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	5,782$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.07	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	5,051$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.15	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	3,941$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.22	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	6c	3,324$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.13	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	2,863$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.72	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,668$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.83	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28e6…3a7ebacked Yes	1c	2,066$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	1,846$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.89	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	1c	1,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.93	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	5c	1,235$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.58	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b9e…ae15backed Yes	2c	1,020$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	829.61$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.33	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	5c	779.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.44	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	5c	718.21$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.22	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	698.78$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	5c	368.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	5c	299.66$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.51	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	5c	251.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.81	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	5c	243.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.32	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	5c	221.24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.03	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event