Middle East · resolved market
L.A. U-Haul attack perp charged with terrorism?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c337b2dd525c8c90f05dbf5ff79668ddcd0164cb8733876666b0bbdacc60204
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,795
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 3,364$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe467…437fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,587$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…4b5bbacked Yes | 9c | 1,060$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.4 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 3c | 786.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 721.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 5c | 550$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 9c | 502.6$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 114 | 24.6%28 W · 86 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb258…89c7backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 3c | 479.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 12c | 400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 365.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc75…a085backed Yes | 16c | 293.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3094…d467backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b97…3241backed Yes | 16c | 227.44$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.39 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 9c | 159.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…ea96backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 10c | 120.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -94.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd39…4252backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 261 | 38.7%101 W · 160 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…9dc5backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc0…8100backed Yes | 13c | 83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x12d4…1a4ebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.