TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcc75…a085

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
91
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst Weather at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT3250%16 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$423Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+66.1%+$279.75
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.73
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+558.4%+$343.48
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$66.88
Fact Check: is L.A. U-Haul attack perp a U.S. Citizen?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+130.9%+$116.6
US forcibly removes Khamenei from power by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.6
L.A. U-Haul attack perp charged with terrorism?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.09
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$111.2
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$277Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$276.92
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$432Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+66.5%+$287.21
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$923Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+188.2%+$1,736.17
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$772Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$772.39
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$23
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+33.8%+$13.63
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$10.37
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$111Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$111.33
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$268Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+32.5%+$87.33
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,265Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+36.6%+$463.27
Iran strike on US military by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$32.55
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$72.82
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+31.6%+$25.2
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,619Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+41.7%+$674.44
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+65.4%+$11.47
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+35.3%+$23.57
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+119.3%+$46.23
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$93.9
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$131.29
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+58.7%+$9.44
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+33.3%+$25
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+136%+$36.9
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+47.6%+$106.49
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$67.45
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$41.18
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+74.6%+$80.55
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 19 to January 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+40.6%+$24.53
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+127.3%+$33.61
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+38.9%+$16.98
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+43.8%+$23.9
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 15 to January 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$19.3
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+70.1%+$18.42
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$235Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+44.1%+$103.73
All 16 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Weather — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.29
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.2
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.1
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.2
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$14
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$16
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
All 9 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-76.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Stocks — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-57.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 18, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+61.3%+$38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$487.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Feb 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $5M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$48.73
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.