Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a32bc8d89ca45c97adf4bb7458fb5e4d673a85b85b0f8196bd3f61276736740
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $467,009
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $417,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $467,009 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10db…6ae5backed No | 0c | 111,000$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c1…825fbacked No | 1c | 71,773$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.18 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7cb…460abacked No | 2c | 26,854$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e4…8048backed No | 1c | 15,000$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b05…ea7abacked No | 0c | 10,422$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x544c…9513backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ca…51a5backed No | 1c | 9,996$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 9,222$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc571…4966backed No | 66c | 9,026$6,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 2c | 7,398$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.8 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb4…b811backed Yes | 31c | 7,117$2,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,917.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b45…e56abacked No | 5c | 7,024$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6594…9a61backed No | 5c | 6,678$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.71 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…487abacked No | 5c | 6,069$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…a215backed No | 5c | 5,981$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 0c | 5,287$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd97…b6edbacked No | 4c | 4,861$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4c…7503backed No | 0c | 4,404$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 31c | 3,861$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,668.78 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed No | 4c | 3,713$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7146…7255backed No | 3c | 3,170$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 5cpaid | +267.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x138b…7e3dbacked No | 5c | 3,120$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55a…dfddbacked No | 4c | 3,039$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9719…1803backed No | 2c | 2,933$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d6d5backed No | 26c | 2,859$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b0…3fe4backed No | 1c | 2,665$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 120 | 11.7%14 W · 106 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked Yes | 78c | 2,329$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.88 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 2c | 2,205$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0f…da52backed No | 2c | 2,114$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…756ebacked No | 5c | 2,044$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adb…54dabacked No | 5c | 2,041$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…56babacked No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 5c | 2,000$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a17…08a0backed No | 4c | 1,990$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf3…7f89backed Yes | 30c | 1,668$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.33 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d82…c7e9backed No | 70c | 1,575$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,098 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 65cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1615…8f2bbacked No | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x317b…2607backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,305 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 10cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f60…5fe1backed No | 1c | 1,402$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed Yes | 44c | 1,369$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.7 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…987bbacked No | 4c | 1,299$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed Yes | 41c | 1,295$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.05 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 2c | 1,278$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 69c | 1,263$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.51 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +9.0wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…8e9abacked No | 4c | 1,250$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked No | 1c | 1,210$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x479a…e102backed No | 2c | 1,164$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…8981backed No | 12c | 1,037$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4257…038cbacked No | 4c | 1,023$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked No | 59c | 1,016$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.28 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc582…40fbbacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5e…3871backed No | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445a…126dbacked No | 5c | 997.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd54c…391dbacked No | 4c | 978.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46eb…f1dfbacked No | 4c | 971.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 24c | 964.84$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.21 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…2190backed No | 4c | 847.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aec…69d9backed No | 57c | 802.82$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 2c | 781.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 71c | 709$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.39 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 69c | 709$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.21 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked Yes | 41c | 694$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.46 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…0823backed No | 3c | 666.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 5c | 630.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…dc2bbacked No | 5c | 600.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1d…1e53backed No | 3c | 588.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +86.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…4e02backed No | 3c | 535.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff2…90bebacked No | 3c | 532.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 77c | 530.39$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.73 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…5fe8backed No | 2c | 526.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f31…a4d4backed No | 40c | 500.04$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6a…ab66backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c4…249abacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…7dd1backed Yes | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa2…c957backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92f…24dabacked No | 5c | 500$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e43…fdc1backed No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x396c…f8aabacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6976…f99bbacked Yes | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…ab6dbacked No | 4c | 445.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdd…c9a9backed No | 3c | 421.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a8…a3c7backed Yes | 45c | 420$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…a303backed No | 7c | 405.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7c…3ecabacked Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 14cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +203.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 50c | 290$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…019ebacked No | 4c | 283.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…9073backed Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.35per pick | 25cpaid | +129.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 46c | 231$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 54c | 200$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.4 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed Yes | 42c | 200$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked Yes | 41c | 191.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.1 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 56c | 177.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.67 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +3.9wins | +0.32per pick | 60cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a7…f5a7backed No | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b39…68bcbacked Yes | 48c | 150.36$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f3…c8d5backed Yes | 59c | 148.89$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…b47cbacked No | 14c | 135.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f85…8693backed Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…7d32backed Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.