Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc69da2e0dcdc764b17743f64e6b6d3e82639954635cc80fcdb2fc6b95727fd1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $345,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $385,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7057…f998backed Yes | 4c | 56,731$2,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.38 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.29per pick | 18cpaid | +200.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…2d97backed Yes | 1c | 5,402$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a76…e976backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ff…7491backed Yes | 0c | 4,992$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…cdd8backed Yes | 2c | 4,966$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff39…90b1backed Yes | 0c | 4,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251f…2264backed Yes | 0c | 4,400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…5fe8backed Yes | 2c | 4,389$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 4,023$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…e3d5backed Yes | 1c | 2,933$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…f384backed Yes | 2c | 2,743$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…629cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,718$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbedd…9b3abacked Yes | 1c | 2,673$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,240$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…6558backed Yes | 1c | 2,111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 28cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,059$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b89…84ffbacked Yes | 2c | 2,050$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed6…a669backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…987bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,956$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 1c | 1,809$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7e…35b7backed Yes | 2c | 1,787$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…7597backed Yes | 3c | 1,540$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…81a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,472$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…6518backed Yes | 2c | 1,271$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…1361backed Yes | 1c | 1,269$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,114$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc596…c316backed Yes | 1c | 1,002$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9c…97a4backed Yes | 2c | 974.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb30…9ae3backed Yes | 1c | 927.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…b977backed Yes | 2c | 849.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7580…853dbacked Yes | 2c | 824.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 2c | 721.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…b496backed Yes | 2c | 630$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95fd…d401backed Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 592.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 529.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…d9d2backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb66d…cb0dbacked Yes | 4c | 309.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.