Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf86191c4b660e0f0f4669eae5638474277a3bb31e5c34e6118e5eb19e00a11cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $252,267
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $297,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,267 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 155 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 10c | 24,015$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 6c | 12,543$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734.25 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 8c | 11,418$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.7 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…8277backed Yes | 4c | 11,264$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 7c | 7,580$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 10c | 4,503$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.51 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 3,170$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.23 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa996…99dabacked Yes | 15c | 3,000$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…4ff5backed Yes | 4c | 2,914$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,657$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 11c | 2,068$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.48 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…65febacked Yes | 16c | 2,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,704$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…fdf9backed Yes | 6c | 1,700$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a42dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,651$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,551$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 5c | 1,292$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 32c | 1,247$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e8…f71dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,125$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf48…6f13backed Yes | 1c | 1,083$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…a691backed Yes | 47c | 1,065$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…a568backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e4…a0a7backed Yes | 3c | 992.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x981f…8993backed Yes | 20c | 989.7$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed No | 70c | 914.89$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.81 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +5.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 7c | 905.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…7112backed Yes | 17c | 849$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…8f9fbacked Yes | 25c | 796.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68d…ec13backed Yes | 6c | 781.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d6…ebefbacked Yes | 22c | 682.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 673.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…b4cbbacked No | 76c | 657.59$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.07 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf365…614dbacked Yes | 14c | 653.91$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf803…0ddfbacked Yes | 7c | 635.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x605a…18a2backed Yes | 18c | 607.15$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 17c | 599.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb12e…8c6cbacked No | 71c | 544.98$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.92 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 540.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed Yes | 29c | 513.01$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 511.12$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.19 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 71c | 506.55$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.06 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +9.0wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5950…8c48backed Yes | 24c | 500$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.58 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 9c | 473.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.87 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…c399backed Yes | 27c | 430.42$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -79%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf29…1f7dbacked Yes | 10c | 419.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.45per pick | 26cpaid | +139.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 60c | 414.45$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.43 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed No | 77c | 388.69$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.69 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c79…1d00backed Yes | 25c | 380.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.03 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…7d32backed Yes | 45c | 360.65$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.7 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 350.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…4faabacked Yes | 4c | 350$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +10.6wins | +0.29per pick | 15cpaid | +113.1%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x916a…ace1backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 16c | 318.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cc…9144backed Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 312.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.27 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…4163backed Yes | 25c | 310$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 26cpaid | +125.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd036…a17cbacked No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 274.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…78dfbacked No | 74c | 270.3$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc4…536fbacked Yes | 23c | 261.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 29c | 258.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…835dbacked No | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 57cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf23e…6052backed Yes | 22c | 256.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked No | 78c | 255.28$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.28 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +4.4wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2c…898abacked Yes | 13c | 253.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…b3c9backed No | 79c | 251.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.7 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…b3c3backed Yes | 18c | 250$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…7521backed Yes | 29c | 242.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…f15cbacked Yes | 9c | 213.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf6…8145backed No | 71c | 211.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 55c | 204.42$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.06 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed No | 78c | 204$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.9 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc05a…5276backed Yes | 11c | 203.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e34…63f7backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +26%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b89…b7b7backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x525b…3eefbacked Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…011dbacked No | 74c | 189.86$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…48e8backed No | 74c | 186.15$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…c5b9backed No | 74c | 184.92$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154f…9a12backed Yes | 24c | 179.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a2…838bbacked Yes | 8c | 175.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 24c | 175.05$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed Yes | 17c | 171.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f60…79ecbacked No | 74c | 167.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…ea39backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x436d…8140backed No | 74c | 166.11$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…d2e4backed Yes | 12c | 164.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Yes | 14c | 154.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…8ce8backed Yes | 26c | 153.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…9ad8backed Yes | 26c | 152.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed Yes | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 68c | 148.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.03 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 29c | 146.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed No | 71c | 144.44$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…5e76backed No | 69c | 144.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +193.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9387…f584backed Yes | 23c | 131.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.