Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc502753860a040cf54d1e7b7a7986621122fb789fcb62d42419fa44b2fd75af0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $469,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $509,996
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $469,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 4c | 54,485$2,358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,358.4 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…cbbebacked Yes | 3c | 20,237$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a0…3eafbacked Yes | 6c | 15,000$855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 7c | 14,232$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926.54 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x253b…0ae7backed Yes | 6c | 11,915$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 31 | 6.5%2 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +243.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 9,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 8,358$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.42 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f55…e9a4backed Yes | 8c | 6,199$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 2c | 5,559$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.11 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 3c | 5,103$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.51 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b7…924dbacked Yes | 11c | 3,307$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa2…786abacked Yes | 8c | 2,463$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,321$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 3c | 2,124$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 2,033$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937a…f16dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c2…89abbacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe148…ab8abacked Yes | 2c | 1,950$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde75…efcfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,888$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…7449backed Yes | 3c | 1,861$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8d…238dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,850$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…5b68backed Yes | 3c | 1,850$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d5…1b17backed Yes | 17c | 1,822$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.47 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed7…809bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,800$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7644…1f13backed Yes | 2c | 1,800$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…322fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,750$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdb…4fc3backed Yes | 2c | 1,700$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…8277backed Yes | 2c | 1,670$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d0…a88bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,650$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…9424backed Yes | 2c | 1,650$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa4…cfcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,650$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdac8…5b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,650$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,633$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53d…9355backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e85…7085backed Yes | 3c | 1,557$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b3…6cf3backed Yes | 3c | 1,550$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,550$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 95 | 6.3%6 W · 89 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,548$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdc…264bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…7d64backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa6…6414backed Yes | 10c | 1,497$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e9…5e05backed Yes | 3c | 1,450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf76e…9995backed Yes | 2c | 1,450$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7437…9897backed Yes | 3c | 1,408$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0a…fe24backed Yes | 2c | 1,350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…bd30backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56f0…1c37backed Yes | 9c | 1,300$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…0516backed Yes | 1c | 1,200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,136$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.41 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 9c | 980$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.49 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4209…e724backed Yes | 5c | 897.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2c…898abacked Yes | 16c | 834.52$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.58 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b36…7ea7backed Yes | 3c | 781$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0814…b977backed Yes | 12c | 729.79$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 723$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 116 | 15.5%18 W · 98 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 633.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 93 | 12.9%12 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…b1fbbacked Yes | 3c | 631$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56b…d2e4backed Yes | 2c | 565.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a08…9513backed Yes | 19c | 537.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc8…3926backed Yes | 9c | 534.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcf…4b45backed Yes | 3c | 508$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x475a…af91backed Yes | 20c | 500.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…b09fbacked Yes | 9c | 500$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Yes | 9c | 448.72$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 3c | 435.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1d…4ad2backed Yes | 3c | 415$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 7c | 407.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0a…8461backed Yes | 15c | 400.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ae…3f6abacked Yes | 7c | 374.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c14…10a2backed Yes | 5c | 373.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5554…b12dbacked Yes | 3c | 355.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc05a…5276backed Yes | 7c | 312.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c26…c399backed Yes | 16c | 300.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.98 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -79%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eef…2974backed Yes | 7c | 264.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402f…8ce8backed Yes | 12c | 246.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989b…7521backed Yes | 13c | 234.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…35c5backed Yes | 11c | 221.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…0c33backed Yes | 9c | 216.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x120f…57c2backed Yes | 12c | 198.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa034…0644backed Yes | 9c | 183.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…d36fbacked Yes | 13c | 156.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0041…5462backed No | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef1d…61a7backed Yes | 16c | 125.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb66d…cb0dbacked Yes | 27c | 120.14$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20cf…7602backed Yes | 13c | 116.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365b…9c42backed Yes | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x058f…b3c3backed Yes | 17c | 109.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63da…9146backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc294…0bebbacked Yes | 27c | 73.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 63.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 48.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 73c | 23.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked No | 71c | 14.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.