Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98b461ee7a734c81f23cc00ac927071addd20ea324897dc7becf5cb6183ec8b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $475,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $459,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $475,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 457 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 11c | 20,845$2,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,259.6 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +121.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes | 1c | 13,639$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.72 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ef…df7dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,401$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf1…8277backed Yes | 19c | 10,823$2,088 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,088.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x625f…e2c0backed Yes | 4c | 9,289$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.63 | 59 | 15.3%9 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 37c | 9,014$3,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,331.56 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 25c | 6,966$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.18 | 78 | 12.8%10 W · 68 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x665b…73babacked Yes | 38c | 6,568$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7277…ab80backed Yes | 79c | 5,000$3,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,954.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 4,966$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 62c | 4,363$2,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,658 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d44…6bb5backed No | 46c | 4,000$1,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,180 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc244…caf6backed No | 46c | 4,000$1,836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,164 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc5…15f3backed Yes | 57c | 4,000$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,272 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…246fbacked Yes | 57c | 4,000$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,272 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa741…e365backed Yes | 57c | 4,000$2,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,292 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…52a8backed No | 45c | 4,000$1,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,220 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…9908backed Yes | 7c | 3,899$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 3,896$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.99 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 57c | 3,762$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,621.25 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 3,705$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.39 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8691…28a0backed No | 45c | 3,100$1,383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,716.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +291.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked No | 76c | 3,000$2,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 2c | 2,997$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…5ba3backed Yes | 5c | 2,700$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 76c | 2,682$2,047 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.96 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2103…4ff5backed Yes | 16c | 2,594$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.21 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed No | 54c | 2,553$1,379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.6 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 60c | 2,539$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.43 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf4b…04ebbacked No | 16c | 2,413$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,029.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +109.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8134…db23backed No | 44c | 2,400$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 1c | 2,334$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce6…754bbacked No | 43c | 2,220$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…7d32backed Yes | 70c | 2,200$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.19 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 75c | 2,185$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.97 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 48c | 2,176$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.25 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf018…d3ebbacked No | 43c | 2,100$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe716…dc38backed No | 46c | 2,100$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa377…d301backed Yes | 57c | 2,100$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a5…83dbbacked Yes | 38c | 2,077$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.08 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed No | 21c | 2,035$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.58 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…e473backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 1,972$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.79 | 66 | 4.5%3 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…6f54backed Yes | 1c | 1,950$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b23…30cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,950$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…6928backed Yes | 55c | 1,930$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,051.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e67…7af2backed Yes | 57c | 1,900$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x663b…4daabacked No | 43c | 1,900$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf606…9386backed Yes | 1c | 1,850$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd733…dababacked Yes | 1c | 1,820$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 62c | 1,800$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa622…de41backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…34f0backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 1,793$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.87 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xada1…da7ebacked No | 43c | 1,780$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…afd5backed Yes | 17c | 1,723$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6cc…4a7dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,700$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb486…8bffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cc…6135backed No | 39c | 1,677$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.42 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…9822backed No | 68c | 1,658$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…e966backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e56…1c96backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c24…8bc8backed Yes | 1c | 1,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf53…5e8ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,650$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1383…0516backed Yes | 2c | 1,645$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…b50bbacked Yes | 19c | 1,609$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.71 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf76c…27d4backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bba…1423backed No | 44c | 1,600$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…7b42backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 50c | 1,568$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.79 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f99…9c06backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bab…d9b3backed Yes | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 24c | 1,494$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.87 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes | 22c | 1,474$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf76e…9995backed Yes | 1c | 1,450$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…765bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,450$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…8d64backed Yes | 4c | 1,450$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.1 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…db7abacked Yes | 43c | 1,422$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a29…90efbacked Yes | 17c | 1,358$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…7a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,350$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf803…0ddfbacked No | 70c | 1,250$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 58c | 1,202$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.05 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -8.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…a736backed No | 9c | 1,200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +465.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac6a…2ed3backed No | 76c | 1,165$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.51 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 71c | 1,150$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,119$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…d13abacked Yes | 14c | 1,085$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Yes | 41c | 1,085$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…8818backed No | 51c | 1,073$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 1,061$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.62 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 8c | 1,016$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…a503backed Yes | 10c | 989.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdecd…d5e0backed Yes | 2c | 957.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…5e86backed Yes | 47c | 879.03$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed No | 33c | 839.71$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.71 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…8f9fbacked Yes | 54c | 826.96$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked No | 75c | 750$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.27 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5e…3871backed No | 32c | 733.91$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fecfbacked Yes | 63c | 718.86$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…57a6backed Yes | 14c | 703.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,600 by end of February?this page
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,000 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,100 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,200 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,500 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,800 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,400 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,450 by end of February?No won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,700 by end of February?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,900 by end of February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.